The BCS has infuriated college football fans for years. Here's a better way.
It's that time of year again. Six worthy teams
(Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Penn State, Texas Tech, Utah) all had claims at
playing in the national title game, and when only two were selected, the BCS was
once again vilified.
This, of course, is nothing new. Ever since its
inception in 1998, the BCS has received almost annual criticism for how it
selected the two teams to play in the national title game. The BCS's original
formula was the average of a team's poll ranking and computer ranking, with a
strength of schedule factor and one penalty point for each loss added in, but
for years, the system has bought time by applying knee-jerk like
adjustments over the off-seasons to correct whatever the perceived slight was
the year before:
In 2000-2001, one-loss Washington beat one-loss
Miami beat one-loss Florida State, who ended up playing in the national
title game. In response to the outrage, a quality win factor was
added in the 2001 offseason, with teams receiving 1.5 points off their
score for beating the No. 1 team, down to 0.1 points for beating the No. 15
team. If it had been in place at the time, Miami, not Florida State, would
have played in the national title game.
But in 2001-2002, Nebraska, not Big 12 Champion Colorado
or one-loss Oregon, earned a national title berth, where they were
summarily slaughtered by Miami. In response, the BCS computer rankings were
purged of any rankings that looked at margin of victory, and the quality win
adjustment was tampered down to 1.0 point for beating the No. 1 team,
down to 0.1 points for beating the No. 10 team. If it had been in place at
the time, Oregon, not Nebraska, would have played in the national title game.
Ironically, Nebraska wouldn't have made the Title Game if the original formula
had been used -- they only snuck into the game because of the quality win
adjustment, implemented in response to a perceived BCS wrong.
In 2003-2004, USC was shut out of a Oklahoma-LSU Title
Game, despite being No. 1 in both human polls -- and finished the
AP National Champions after routing Michigan in the Rose Bowl. In response,
The computers were determined to have altogether too much influence and the
formula we use today was unveiled: 1/3 Coaches poll, 1/3 Harris poll (in place
of the AP, which withdrew from the BCS after 2004-2005 given the controversy)
and 1/3 computer poll to break ties.
This year, Texas wishes it were 2001-2002 all
over again and quality wins were back in play. In light of this perceived
slight, the BCS can't tamper with its formula anymore, however. A formula,
like the BCS today, that's basically the human polls with a computer
tiebreaker is as likely to agree with conventional wisdom (and thus be
controversy-free) as any. Plus, for the BCS to go back to Square One and return
to its 2001-2002 formula over the offseason would be admitting no real
progress has been made and the last seven years have just been an extended game
of three-card Monty -- not going to happen.
Besides, changing formulas could only mollify the public
for so long. By now, an overwhelming majority of college football fans and
analysts (and officials as high as President-Elect Barack Obama) have come
to realize the BCS is inherently flawed and think a playoff system would be best
for the sport. Plus, with every snub of the system, another head coach is being
converted to a playoff proponent, this year Texas' Mack Brown.
To my eyes, the reason we have no change is that people
are irrationally risk-averse when it comes to money. University Presidents and
ADs have to realize they could potentially be earning double the television
revenue with playoffs, but don't want to risk the multi-millions they're
currently receiving. Plus, football culture, for whatever reason, seems to
inherently look down upon change. The words "forward pass" were considered
an anathema to masculinity 60 years ago, yet the game depends on the pass
today. It's been mathematically shown that it's best to go for any
fourth down of less than three yards, but no coaches do. Or look at the
derision with which "traditionalists" lamented today's most dominant offense,
the spread, upon its arrival five years ago (and some, notably Gary
Danielson, still do.) The comfort of a flawed system we know, the BCS, is
enough to forestall any switch to a playoff system, no matter how great it would
be.
The NCAA and ESPN just signed a
multi-year, multi-million BCS deal, so we're stuck with the current
system for the foreseeable future. Still, I'm not going to let today's reality
constrain tomorrow's possibilities: when college football playoffs
inevitably come, here's what 10 years of history says they should look
like:
A Modest Playoff Proposal
What people are starting to realize, after ten years of
evidence, is that the fundamental problem with the BCS isn't the formula -- the
present formula is the best I could imagine at choosing the same two teams as
general consensus dictates. The issue is that some years there are exactly two
deserving teams, but some years there are one, some years there are three
or four or five, and some years, like this year, there are nine
deserving teams. Any system that decides ahead of time how many teams are
postseason worthy is bound to be imperfect.
I think, therefore, the absolute ideal playoffs
would be a system with no predetermined size. Rankings wouldn't matter either --
imagine how absurd it would be if No. 11 New England made the NFL playoffs with
a worse record than No. 13 Baltimore. Like every professional sport, the
only factor that would matter is record. However many teams were tied atop the
standings would make the playoffs. The beauty is in the simplicity.
If there were only two undefeated BCS teams, that'd be
your championship. If there were no undefeated teams and five one-loss teams,
that'd be your championship. If there were only one undefeated team, it'd be
your champion, no playoffs necessary, no matter how many one loss teams there
were. However many teams were in the playoffs would be seeded on schedule
strength and play it out over the subsequent weeks.
Teams from non-BCS conferences would be assessed a
one-loss penalty, so this year Utah and Boise State would make the
postseason on the same footing as all the one-loss BCS teams. The
threat of that one-loss penalty and that seedings would be done on schedule
strength would also ensure that BCS conferences stay tough and BCS-conference
teams play tough out-of-conference schedules.
Some would argue that it would be logistically difficult
to not know how many playoff games (if any) would be needed ahead of time,
but if pro baseball and pro basketball can have as-necessary games that
sometimes never get played, why couldn't college football?
Plus, playoff detractors talk about the sanctity of the
regular season making college football special (which I completely agree with).
I just care more about Oklahoma-Texas Week 5 than Dallas-Green Bay, because
I know the latter two teams can still win the championship with a
loss, and the first two may well not. Playoff detractors rightfully
point out that if we create an eight-team playoff such that a team could lose a
game or two and still get in, you're devaluing the meaning of the regular
season.
With a flexible playoff structure, however, literally
every game would matter. Say any of the one-loss BCS conference teams had lost
one fewer game this year. They'd be our undefeated, undisputed national
champions, no playoffs necessary. Say any of those teams had lost one more game
this year -- they wouldn't be in the playoffs.
Finally, just look at the history. Here's how many teams
would have made an ideal playoff system each year:
2008: 9. In: One-loss
Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, Alabama, USC, Texas Tech, Penn State, undefeated Utah
and Boise State. First team out: two-loss Ohio State
2007: 3. In: One-loss
Ohio State, one-loss Kansas, undefeated Hawaii. First team out:
two-loss LSU
2006: 1. In: Undefeated
Ohio State. First team out: one-loss Florida
2005: 2. In: Undefeated
USC, undefeated Texas. First team out: one-loss
Penn State
2004: 3. In: Undefeated
USC, undefeated Oklahoma, undefeated Auburn. First team out:
one-loss Cal
2003: 1. In: One-loss
Oklahoma, one-loss USC, one-loss LSU. First team out:
two-loss Michigan
2002: 2. In: Undefeated
Ohio State, undefeated Miami. First team out:
one-loss Iowa
2001: 1. In: Undefeated Miami.
First team out: one-loss Nebraska
2000: 1. In: Undefeated
Oklahoma. First team out: one-loss Miami
1999: 2. In: Undefeated
Florida State, undefeated Virginia Tech. First team out:
one-loss Iowa
1998: 1. In: Undefeated
Tennessee. First team out: one-loss Florida
State
In 11 years, we would have had a nine-team playoff, two
three-team playoffs, three two-team playoffs and five years with no playoffs at
all. Obviously there's no magical size for a playoff field that will work every
year -- and by installing such a playoff we'll just be passing along the
fundament problem of the BCS onto the next generation, an inflexible playoff
size.
Let the seasons speak for themselves, and let's install
a flexible playoff system.
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