Week 13 Poll
1. Florida (Change: 0)
2. USC (0)
3. Oklahoma (+2)
4. Texas (0)
5. Alabama (+1)
6. Penn State (+2)
7. Utah (0)
8. Texas Tech (-5)
9. Ohio State (0)
10. TCU
(0)
11. Oklahoma State (+1)
12. Boise State (-1)
13. Missouri (0)
14. Ball State (+1)
15. Oregon State (+2)
16. Georgia (-2)
17. Cincinnati (+5)
18. BYU
(-2)
19. Boston College (+2)
20. Oregon (+3)
21. Nebraska (+5)
22. Mississippi (+4)
23. Pittsburgh (-3)
24. Florida State (+2)
25. Georgia Tech (+1)
IN: Mississippi,
Nebraska,
Florida State, Georgia
Tech
OUT:
Michigan State, Miami,
Maryland, LSU
ON
DECK: LSU,
Northwestern, West Virginia, Michigan State
********** ********** **********
2009-10 Stanford
The moment the final horn sounded in Berkeley, next year
began already for the optimistic Stanford fan. Sure enough, I log onto The
Bootleg and see some pretty smart people breaking down Stanford's 2009-10
schedule game-by-game. Most conclude that the Card will finish in a bowl game.
I'm hopeful, but not so sure, and so I wanted to make sure to get my two
cents in...
Though the Sagarin ratings look like
they're hosted on
a website that's trying to convince you that the world is heading
toward a fiery demise, and only your three shipments of $19.99 can save us
(whatever that font typeface is formally called, they should rename
it "crazy man"), the ratings are the best snapshot comparison of all the
teams in college football, and not just the Top 25. Vegas spreads and the
BCS both lean heavily on Sagarin's numbers, which have proven themselves
accurate year after year after year. They're the gold-standard of computer
ratings, and if we add 2.8 to every opponent Stanford gets on the road next year
(italicized) and subtract 2.8 from every opponent that has to visit Stanford
(bolded), here's what we get:
USC (11/14) 93.4
Oregon St. (10/10) 85.9
Wake Forest (9/12) 80.4
Arizona (10/17) 77.6
Cal (11/21) 77.2
Oregon (11/7) 76.1
Stanford 71.4
Notre Dame (11/28) 69.3
Arizona St. (10/24) 65.8
UCLA (10/3) 62.8
San Jose State (9/19) 60.1
Washington St. (9/5) 55.7
Washington (9/26) 51.2
Another great thing about these ratings is that a unit
difference in rating translates into a point difference in the spread. Thinking
of any spreads of greater than a touchdown as likely wins or losses, and
categorizing the rest as tossups, here's what we see:
Likely losses
Stanford (+22) at USC
Stanford
(+15) at Oregon State
Stanford (+9) at Wake Forest
Likely wins
Stanford (-9) vs. UCLA
Stanford
(-11) vs. San Jose State
Stanford (-16) at Washington State
Stanford (-20) vs. Washington
Tossups
Stanford (-6) vs. Arizona State
Stanford (-2) vs. Notre Dame
Stanford (+5) vs. Oregon
Stanford (+6) vs. Cal
Stanford (+6)
at Arizona
That feels right. Obviously teams will not be exactly as
strong as they are this year, and if you think Stanford will improve more than
the average Pac-10 team (a fair assumption, I'd think), then maybe these
estimates are conservative.
Quick Takes
- Another reason for optimism: the schedule does the
Cardinal absolute wonders next years, with four of the five tossups at home.
Stanford has only five road games, and three of them (USC, Oregon State and
Washington State) have such a clear-cut favorite that it's just as well the Card
play those teams on the road. Save the home-field edge for the games where it
will matter.
- If Stanford's making a bowl, they'll need to ride the
same wave they did this year: start out strong (the Card should start 4-1) and
then hang on for dear life. Oregon, USC and Cal again close out Pac-10 play.
- The non-conference schedule continues to be a silent
killer. How do Stanford fans feel about keeping Notre Dame on the schedule?
Decidedly mixed. Now, knowing that if we replaced Notre Dame with Podunk
U., this year's seniors would have left with two bowl bids, how do fans
feel about such a tough non-conference schedule? The same situation could
well happen next year -- say Stanford's 5-6 and needing a win to reach its first
bowl since 2001. Would you rather be playing Notre Dame or Yale?
- Speaking of Yale, here's my non-conference scheduling
strategy if I'm the AD.
San Jose State is brilliant, keep them every year as
Game No. 1. We should win 85 percent of the time.
Game No. 2 is Duke or Rice. We get to travel to a
talent-rich area every year, plus we look good playing a smart school, and
when we beat them, it's huge for recruiting since we're often fighting for the
same kids -- two birds with one stone. They almost had it right with Wake,
except we're 30% favorites, not 80% favorites to win that one. More on Wake in a
bit. If we start becoming better, gradually build up to Northwestern
or Vanderbilt or Wake, but only when our program's at a place where we are
strong favorites in that game. For now, stick with Duke and Rice.
Game No. 3 is Division I-AA. If we want to do
home-and-homes with Harvard or Yale or Princeton, it's a safe win, the media
will eat it up for some good publicity, we get to go out East for the alums and
recruits out there, and when we win by 30, we remind everyone that we're not a
Harvard or Yale or Princeton. If we want to do UC-Davis (I know, I know) or some
other non-Division I-A California school, that sounds great with me too. Whoever
it is, just make sure it's a win.
We'd get some flack for having an easier schedule, but
that'd be the whole point. Point to this season, point to Walt Harris' 5-6
season, point to the fact that every SEC and Big 12 and Big 10 and heck, just
about any other BCS team schedules as many wins as possible, and point to the
fact that with nine conference games, we still enjoy one fewer cupcake than
everyone else.
Playing Notre Dame annually is such a Stanfordy,
hopelessly utopian, "we are not Nebraska" notion. No one remembers how hard
our schedule was this year or three years ago, they just remember not seeing us
in a bowl. No one cares that Texas Tech played Eastern Washington, SMU, Nevada
and Massachusetts out of conference. They were undefeated and No. 2 in the
country heading into last week. Would swapping one of those teams with TCU
really helped their cause? We're playing Notre Dame out of what, the chance to
be on national TV when the Irish were the only TV school 15 years ago and
this abstact notion of fairness? I'd rather have win No. 6, thank you very
much.
Building a winning football program is hard enough at
Stanford that we need to exploit every advantage we can find, instead of
actively making the schedule one of the toughest in the country. Toughest
academics, toughest schedule, winning seasons. Pick two, Mr. Bowlsby.
- Speaking of awful scheduling, Wake Forest and Notre
Dame crop up next year. Those are two very losable games, but if we drop
them it's not like we're playing a Florida -- neither team is that good
that we'll get any credit. With Wake Forest in particular, I feel it my duty to
point out some of the following in response to irrational optimism I've seen on
the board:
The last time we won a road game against an opponent
with a pulse was when exactly? USC last year?
This year, we played USC, Cal, Oregon, TCU and Arizona
State on the road. We got thoroughly outplayed by all five, blown out on the
scoreboard by all save for Oregon. Wake is better than half those teams
and we must travel further. Why do we have a good shot?
Also, West Coast teams do horribly on the East Coast.
The 5:30 a.m. wakeup call is brutal. Look at Cal falling behind Maryland 21-0
this year. Heck, even in the NFL, where players are a lot more used to the
travel, West Coast teams started something like 0-12 on the East Coast this
year.
I think next year's Wake is this year's TCU: a game everyone's
really confident about... until 6 p.m. Saturday.
Bottom line
We're safely 4-3 with five tossups, so it seems likelier than
not we will go bowling next year, for the first time in far too long! The
front of the schedule's pretty soft, so we won't really know what to expect from
this team until we play the Arizona schools in mid-October. I'll project a
2009 record of 6-6, which shows how small the margin for error is. If only
the AD would schedule smarter (easier) out-of-conference, and we could be
looking at 8-4 next year.
********** ********** **********
We close with our picks section, also known as
Don't Quit Your Day Job:
Last week:
Big wheels keep
on turning... big favorites keep on rolling. Oklahoma, Penn State and Utah: thank you.
I'm awful at picking bowl games, so let's send this season
out
on a bang this week...
3-0 straight-up, 3-0 against the spread.
Season:
25-11 against the spread, 29-7
straight-up
.
Georgia Tech (+8) at Georgia
Both
teams are overrated, but
I do think Georgia's better. Plus, Georgia's defense
has too much speed for Tech's option attack to amount to
much of anything. One game against Miami
doesn't make up
for the prior five. As much as I hate picking the team whose fans bark at you, I know
favorites have seemingly beat the spread in 75 percent of the games we've picked this year.
We're dancing with the girl we brought.
Georgia 27, Georgia Tech 13
Oklahoma (-7) at Oklahoma State
Bob Stoops is better than anyone at putting up big numbers on opponents
he should decimate. Oklahoma State falls into that category: I'm taking bets on
whether the Pokes find
their defense or one of the Big 3 goes bankrupt first. Plus,
Oklahoma's playing for style points right now.
Oklahoma 45, Oklahoma State
24
Oregon (+3) at Oregon State
The Beavers have won six in
a row, but they've beaten each of the Arizona schools by
two points during that span. Oregon State's defense is better and they're undefeated at
home this year, but, then again, the officials will be pulling for USC, err,
Oregon. Obviously, Jacquizz Rodgers'
health is a huge key for Oregon State, and with his status
unknown, I think Oregon's the safer pick.
Oregon State
27, Oregon State 24
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