USC 45,
Stanford 23
Today's most painful loss
is... UCLA?
Few would have expected Stanford to be leading
with five minutes left in the second quarter, or tied with 18 minutes to
play. The Card fell apart in the final quarter, but USC's better, that was going
to happen. Last year's outcome was the biggest upset ever, in a sport that
has seen tens of thousands of games, for a reason: just like it was folly
to expect the Card to upset USC again this season, it would be
nonsensical to hold the 2008 Card to their 2007 counterparts'
performance. Stanford played one of its best games of the season in its
2008 home finale, and has no reason to be ashamed.
Football isn't a game of absolutes, and it bothers me
to no end when I hear the talking heads throw out football maxims
like "You never take points off the board," or "You never want to
kick it deep to this guy." Still, I'll break my own rule and throw out a maxim
of my own: there's never any shame in losing as a double-digit underdog.
Stanford will be a double-digit underdog in five
games this season, Arizona State (when they were good, remember?), TCU, Oregon,
USC and Cal. (I'll guess Bears -12.) The Card haven't won any of those
games yet and have only come close in one (Oregon, where they were significantly
outgained, but were gifted four lost Duck fumbles and a safety). Stanford
will need to win in Berkeley next week to make their first bowl in seven
years.
Being a double-digit underdog means you're plain
outmatched -- your opponent is significantly better and it's going to take a lot
of luck for you to win. The Card got that luck last year against USC (five
Trojan turnovers) and Cal (Bear quarterbacks that played like they
were fighting for the final high school JV spot), and they nearly
capitalized last week in Eugene. Nonetheless, all these double-digit favorites
outclass Stanford, painfully so when each team's passing offense matches up
against Stanford's pass defense, and, when it's Stanford's pass
offense on the field, perhaps more so. The Card have not been able to throw on
any of these teams this season, or stop any of them from passing at will, and
that goes a long way toward explaining Stanford's 1-21 record against ranked
teams since the Card's last bowl appearance.
If Stanford, now saddled with its first losing
record of the season, does go on to drop Big Game, the natural tendancy
will be to look at the Card's last three defeats, particularly because the last
two will have come to Stanford's two biggest rivals. But those, nor Stanford's
first two losses, will be where the season will have been lost.
Stanford was a seven-point underdog to Notre Dame, and
never seems to play well on the East Coast or in the Midwest (in any
sport), nor at South Bend, in particular, and so even that loss is excusable.
Notre Dame's pass-first attack is also a really bad matchup for an overmatched
Card secondary, plus Notre Dame is the inverse Oregon State -- start out hot,
but then collapse down the stretch. The Card really didn't have a shot, and were
lucky to close the final margin to seven.
Stanford is 2-0 in games where it was a double-digit
favorite, at Washington State and versus San Jose State. They are 3-1
in its toss-up games (Vegas lines within seven), with wins over Oregon State,
Washington (they're not as bad as their record suggests, and they
were playing much harder a few months ago) and Arizona. That, of course,
leaves the UCLA loss.
It's irrational to expect Stanford to sweep all its
toss-ups: flip a coin four times, and it's coming up all heads just 1-in-16
tries. And that Stanford is an above average 3-1 against similarly-talented
opponents is the only reason we're having this conversation in the first place,
or aren't just spoilers next week. But still, who ever said fans were supposed
to be rational?
I understand the macro trend, but I also know that
Stanford knew the stakes in Westwood a month ago: come up
with one stop against the Bruins, or the road to six gets exponentially
harder. The Card have continued to play well their last three weeks, (Heck,
they're even 3-0 against the spread in their last three, after this week's Jim
Harbaugh backdoor cover,) but they're also Don Quixote tilting at windmills:
Stanford can bring its A-game against Arizona State, TCU, Oregon and now
USC, and unless they happen to catch their opponent on a C or D day
(no, not that D Day), it's not going to matter. USC played its B
game, grading out at a D in the first half, a C in the third quarter,
and an A in quarter number four, and won handily. Cal is now in a position to do
the same to the Cardinal, and while five wins is more than we had any right to
expect this year, and while the program's long-term trajectory is excellent, and
while (and here's another maxim I hate) "you never know what's going to
happen in a rivalry game," fans aren't rational.
It's frustrating to know that Stanford is no longer in
control of its bowl destiny, and needs an off-day from Cal, regardless of how
well it plays in Berkeley Saturday, to snap a seven-year spell. It's frustrating
to know that, at UCLA, Stanford was 15 seconds away from never putting
itself in this position to begin with. It's frustrating to know that, 26 years
after Elway just missed out on a bowl trip in a Cardinal uniform with a loss to
Cal, this year's Stanford seniors are in peril of falling victim to the same
fate. It's frustrating to think that Stanford's played well these past three
weeks, and in their three "toss-up" wins, but their margin of error is so small
that one mistake (or regression to the mean) could derail their season-long
goals.
It's frustrating to know that frustration is nothing new
to a Stanford fan, and that the sports bonds we Cardinaljunkies
share are too often ones of heartbreak and agony. Our school does as much
to make the world a better place as almost any institution, the vast majority of
Stanford people are exceedingly nice -- why us?
It's frustrating to look at the final score, see USC 45,
Stanford 23, and know that the Card played just about as well as they could
have.
It's frustrating to think that Cal's likely to win, and
be twice as happy after breaking our hearts in the process. It's frustrating to
think of that post-game walk down Cal's Frat Row considering the stakes of a
loss.
Of course, hope springs eternal in college football, and
Cal's a great matchup for 2008 Stanford. They're best defending the run, which
means we might be able to actually pass, and they're best running the ball,
which means our secondary might not get torched like southern California is at
the present moment.
Right now, the only solace to a fan who's 22
going on 45 thanks to his alma mater is that there's one more shot to
do the unthinkable. And if the Mother of All Upsets (tm) does occur, all the
doubts beforehand will only make it that much sweeter.
For Stanford football, literally nothing else matters
right now. Beat Cal.
That's our take. Here's what other writers
thought...
National
Associated Press
After a sluggish first
half by Southern California, it looked as if there could be another Stanford
stunner.
No upset this time: Trojans pull away to down
StanfordSports
NetworkMark Sanchez threw two touchdown passes and the
Trojan ground game amassed 282 yards as sixth-ranked Southern California shook
off a slow start with 28 second-half points to spoil the Stanford Cardinal upset
bid with a 45-23 victory.
Stanford
San
Francisco Chronicle
USC exacted
its revenge. And Stanford has to wring whatever silver linings it can out of the
fact that the Trojans had to work a while to get it.USC exacted its revenge. And
Stanford has to wring whatever silver linings it can out of the fact that the
Trojans had to work a while to get it.
San
Francisco Chronicle
For all the
talk of adjustments and tactics and revenge and mythical improvement that
circled about USC's 45-23 beat-down of Stanford, the way the game turned from
potential upset at halftime to sound thrashing was explained best by Trojans
running back C.J. Gable.
[Ed: I realize Ratto and
Smith don't check each other's stories before filing, but the juxtaposition of
their leads is comical. "USC exacted its revenge," one article posits. The other
says revenge got a lot of talk but wasn't actually that
important.]
San Jose
Mercury News
For one
half Saturday, Stanford played better than it did in last season's titanic upset
of USC — much better.
Redefining the terms
Mark Purdy
San Jose Mercury News
When the mouth of Jim Harbaugh opens and speaks, there is
never a dull moment.
Palo Alto
Online
No one ever said rebuilding a football program was
going to be easy.
Santa Rosa Press
Democrat
Jim Harbaugh has problems with short-term memory.
His plucky Cardinal had just had their lunch handed to them by the USC Trojans,
45-23, a butt-kicking score if there ever was one, and someone asked when he
would start thinking about Cal — as in Big Game next Saturday in
Berkeley.
“Now,” said Harbaugh, “This minute.”
USC
This victory comes with a return ticketGary Klein
Los Angeles Times
C.J.
Gable's 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown was one of several highlight-reel
plays for the Trojans' kickoff return team in a 45-23 victory over Stanford on
Saturday at Stanford Stadium.
USC settles score with Stanford on the
ground
Kurt
Streeter
Los Angeles Times
It was at
[halftime], recalled Stafon Johnson, that the USC running backs huddled
together, said they'd had enough, and vowed that they would take over the game
in the final two quarters.
Los Angeles Times
Sure, it's still
technically possible. It's also technically possible for Pac-10 officials to
call a perfect game.
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