Week 8 Poll
1. Penn State (Change: 0)
2. USC
(0)
3. Texas (0)
4. Florida (0)
5. Oklahoma (0)
6. Alabama (0)
7. Georgia (0)
8. Texas Tech (0)
9. LSU (0)
10. Ohio State (0)
11. Oklahoma State (+4)
12. Utah (+1)
13. Boise State (+5)
14. TCU (+10)
15. Missouri
(-3)
16.
BYU (-5)
17. Kansas (-2)
18.
Georgia Tech
(+8)
19. Oregon (+3)
20. South Florida (+3)
21. Ball State (+4)
22. Pittsburgh (+4)
23. Boston College (+3)
24. Florida State (+2)
25. Northwestern (+1)
IN: Georgia Tech,
Pittsburgh, Boston
College, Florida State,
Northwestern
OUT: Wake Forest, Michigan State, North Carolina, Cal,
Virginia Tech
ON DECK: Cal, Tulsa, Wake Forest, Virginia
Tech, Minnesota
All quiet up front
We weren't savants last
week, and we're not overly stubborn this week. Our unchanged top ten is just
what happens when everyone performs to expectations.
No. 1 Penn State and No. 2 USC continue to steamroll folks, Penn State
flattening a better opponent. No. 3 Texas looks dominant offensively,
but I feel the same way about its defense as I did about the
underside my bed at age five: while I can't quite find the scary monster waiting
to jump out when I least expect it, I'm nonetheless sure it's there.
(The Longhorns' 111st-ranked pass defense wouldn't be a bad place to
start looking.) That's why those top-three teams are ordered as they are.
Rounding out our top ten, Georgia continues to struggle
offensively and Texas
Tech lets a weak Texas A&M team hang around for
way too long, which is why they find themselves behind many
of their undefeated and one-loss peers. The one top-ten team that exceeded national expectations
last weekend was Ohio State, but we wrote last week that Ohio State
should roll the Spartans. We're keeping them steady for this Saturday, as Ohio State is
0-for-its-last-3 in colossal fashion against top-five teams, and Penn State is coming to
Columbus in the Big Ten's Game of
the Year.
All crazy in the middle
Meanwhile, from No. 11 to No. 25, our poll is more
tumultuous than the Dow Jones. That's what happens when, every week, we
have the vague sense that any team lower than No. 10 in the poll is overrated,
earning their ranking not on the merits, but by default, with no other worthy
teams in sight. Sure enough, we suspected there'd be a week when
seemingly everyone lost, and this was the week.
My theory: The much-discussed age of parity in this
85-scholarship limit college football era doesn't affect the superpowers as much
as it does the second- and third-best teams in each league. (That's why you see
teams like Minnesota, who wouldn't be sniffing the top 35 ten years
ago, in this week's top 25.)
The Pac-10's a great example of what's happening
nationally: USC's still going to get their A-list recruits, but
after the Trojans, the window of opportunity is big enough that our
beloved Stanford, fresh off a 4-8 season, has the league's second-best recruiting
class at the moment. On the field, we're seeing the same thing: after
USC, there's five or six teams who could all beat each other any
given Saturday. The same logic carries over to just about every other BCS conference
that's not the SEC: really good teams run only one or two deep (or,
in the ACC and Big East, zero deep). This is all good news for Stanford, by the
way, as the climb from No. 8 to No. 3 in the conference isn't as steep as
it looks.
********** ********** **********
Underrated/Overrated
We're deep enough into the season to take some
educated stabs, and there's enough of the season left that a mid-course
adjustment of our mentality could still be valuable. So, without further
ado...
Florida edition:
Underrated: Florida State
You know the talent's there -- FSU is
still a brand-name program in the heart of one of the most talent-rich areas in
the country. You know the opportunity's there in a watered-down ACC. You
probably didn't know that all the 'Noles wins have come by more than a touchdown,
and their one loss is to a good Wake Forest team. The one caveat is that
the 'Noles do have the meat of their schedule still to play.
Overrated: South Florida
The Bulls are 6-1, but have two close wins (Kansas, on a
last-second field goal, and UCF in overtime) and have played a watered-down
schedule. Four of the five best Big East teams are still to come -- it's
entirely possible that South Florida goes, say, 1-4 down the stretch.
ACC:
Underrated: Boston College
The Eagles are not even in the coaches' poll, yet they
are just a three-point loss to Georgia Tech from being undefeated, and have
a win over Virginia Tech under their belt. This might just be your ACC champion
in six weeks' time.
Overrated: Wake Forest and Georgia
Tech
Georgia Tech has Florida State, North Carolina, Miami and Georgia
still on deck, and three wins by four points or less, including a 10-7 thriller
over Gardner-Webb. Wake Forest is the master at winning games despite being
outgained. History shows that teams like that painfully regress to the mean over
the long run. The Deacons have losses to Navy and, last week, lost 26-0 at
Maryland. They've won twice despite scoring 12 points, and were lucky to
beat Mississippi by two.
SEC:
Underrated: Florida
The one-point loss to Mississippi is a fluke: the Gators would win that game
nine out of ten times, and if they had, they would be the No. 2 team in the
country right now, at worst. In their last game, they clobbered LSU by 30, the
same Tiger team that is favored over preseason No. 1 Georgia this weekend. The
Gators have beat everyone else by at least 23 points, and the neutral-siter
against Georgia, and a visit to Florida State are their only tussles left
with ranked opponents. It could well come down to the Gators, and a one-loss
USC, Penn State, Ohio State or Texas for the final national title spot, and, if
so, Florida could make a powerful case by knocking off Alabama in the SEC
Title Game. Assuming the Tide rolls that far, of course...
Overrated: Alabama
The Tide, in their last two games, beat Kentucky by three and Mississippi by
four. This is the No. 2 team in the country? Plus, 'Bama's marquee wins, at
Georgia and at Clemson, look nowhere near as good as we thought at the
time. Alabama is benefitting from the wrong type of legacy -- they're
buoyed because voters remember them being good 15 years ago, too far in the past
for the recruits on today's team to have been swayed.
Big 10:
Underrated: Northwestern
The Wildcats have actually been decent in recent memory,
and have wins over Duke, Iowa and Purdue. Their only ranked opponents left are
Minnesota and Ohio State, so a ten-win season isn't crazy.
Overrated: Minnesota
This team went 1-11 last year, and while they don't have
much left on their schedule either, they haven't played anyone of note. Their
non-conference schedule? Northern Illinois (four-point win), Bowling Green,
Montana State and Florida Atlantic. Their Big Ten wins? Indiana and Illinois.
Stanford could well be 6-1 against that slate, and the Cardinal, like the
Gophers, are not a top-25 team.
Pac-10
Underrated: Oregon
The losses are to Boise State and USC. There's no shame in either of those,
and it's quite possible Oregon ends up a top-15 team, with those two squads
finishing in the top 10. How are the Ducks not ranked? Plus, as the
quarterback situation stabilizes, Oregon should only get better. The Cal-Oregon
game should be for second in the Pac-10, as we thought heading into the
season.
Overrated: Arizona. Five wins already
and WSU is still to come, so the Wildcats will make a bowl for the first time in
a long time. But losses to Stanford and New Mexico
are nothing special, and they've played no games against current top-25 teams. Plus, the Oregon schools
and a desperate Arizona State are still on deck, and I see the 'Cats
going 2-3 down the stretch for a 5-4
conference finish. That's about fifth in the conference for a team
some are considering second to USC.
Underrated: Arizona State. Both
Washington schools are still to come. Losses include Georgia, USC and Cal. Maybe
there's a top-25 team in the Devils waiting to bust
out with a 5-0 finish?
Overrated: The league's bowl
picture. At first glance, you'd think this would be a
perfect-storm scenario for eight bowl teams, with the Washington schools
absorbing all the losses and no real powerhouse other than USC to steal too many
wins. And, indeed, it is mathematically possible that everyone but USC
qualifies for a bowl. However, my read of
the schedule says that Stanford is most likely to land on five
wins, UCLA is most likely to land on five wins and ASU is most
likely to land on five wins. That would leave just five Pac-10 bowl teams, a knockout
punch for a league with just one top-25 team.
********** ********** **********
We close with our picks section, also known as
Don't Quit Your Day Job:
Last week: Texas and
Ohio State won big, as expected, but TCU's
upset of BYU spoiled a perfect week. Still, at 14-7 against
the spread now, we're approaching statistical significance here. Anybody want to bankroll me
the rest of the way?
2-1 straight-up, 2-1 against the spread.
Season:
14-7 against the spread,
16-5 straight-up.
Oklahoma State (+12) at Texas
When's the last top-10 team that was a
double-digit underdog? Oklahoma State's rush-first attack is a bad match
against a Texas defense that gets weaker the further you
move from the
line of scrimmage, but their defense is better than in recent years, and I'm still not sold on Texas. It
wouldn't shock me to see the Pokes win outright, and when that's the case and the
line's double digits, the pick is near-automatic.
Texas 38, Oklahoma State 31
Georgia (+1.5) at LSU
Georgia can't score,
but they have a better defense, better yardage
statistics this season, better quarterback play, didn't get clobbered by Florida, and have the best
player on the field in Knowshon Moreno.
Georgia 17, LSU
13
Penn State (-2.5)
at Ohio
State
Jim Tressel does a great job of winning
close games and winning the games he should. Ohio State, however, is known to get
clobbered by top-five teams (USC, Florida and LSU) and this one will be in that mold. PSU's defense
has always been stout, and now that they have the
offense to go
with it. (Or, if you're a logic-chain
person: Penn State clobbered Oregon State, who beat USC, who clobbered Ohio State.) The
Lions make their claim for a national title berth.
Penn
State 31, Ohio State 13
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