Week 7 Poll
1. Penn State (Change: +2)
2. USC
(0)
3. Texas (+2)
4. Florida (+2)
5. Oklahoma (-4)
6. Alabama (+1)
7. Georgia (+2)
8. Texas Tech (+3)
9. LSU (-5)
10. Ohio State (0)
11.
BYU (+1)
12. Missouri
(-4)
13. Utah (0)
14. California
(0)
15. Oklahoma State (+2)
16. Virginia Tech (-1)
17. Michigan State (+4)
18. Boise State (-2)
19. Wake Forest (+1)
20. Kansas (-2)
21.
North Carolina
(+5)
22. Oregon (0)
23. South Florida (0)
24. TCU (+2)
25. Ball State (+1)
IN: North
Carolina, TCU, Ball
State
OUT: Wisconsin, Arizona,
Auburn, Oregon
ON DECK: Vanderbilt,
Pittsburgh, Tulsa
USC: Back with authority
The Trojans always do best under the radar. After their
traditional early-season loss to a lower-level Pac-10 team (Oregon State this
year, Stanford last year, Oregon State in 2006), USC wakes up and beat the
living snot out of everyone. After dismantling Arizona State and Oregon, the No.
2 and No. 3 preseason Pac-10 teams, by a combined 62 points, it looks like
USC's on the start of another season-closing 10-game win streak. A one-loss USC-
one-loss Penn State Rose Bowl would be
a classic...
Penn State: Baby got back
...that might not happen, though. The Lions are taking
no prisoners either, after drawing and quartering Wisconsin 48-7 this
past Saturday. Wisconsin, incidentally, was ranked as high as Penn State three
weeks ago. In keeping with our theme, "Baby Got Back" is a song last
popular in the early '90s, the last time Penn State was this good. (The Lions
were 12-0 in 1994, but Nebraska won the national title.) Michigan's won nine
straight in the series, but Penn State should snap that streak this week
in Happy Valley. Then, the Big Ten title's on the line next weekend in
a visit to Ohio State. These next two weeks will make or break the Lions,
which is a nice segueway into the team that made the biggest headlines
this weekend...
Texas: Back-to-back-to-back?
Predictably, the polls have the Horns No. 1, but I am keeping
Texas in a holding pattern. Oklahoma was the first team with a pulse
Texas played, so I'm not completely sold yet, and Texas'
defense didn't look champion-caliber. Plus, look at Texas' schedule these next five weeks: vs.
No. 11 Missouri this Saturday, then vs. No. 8 Oklahoma State, at No.
7 Texas Tech, vs. Baylor and at No. 16 Kansas. They survive all
of that, we'll bump them up in the poll.
My bet, however, is that someone catches the Horns in these next few weeks. I
think their offense is covering up a weak secondary that these
next five opponents should be able to exploit they're that good. Colt McCoy,
however, is the clear favorite to win the Heisman right now.
Back to school: the Pac-10
With Arizona dropping a thriller to Stanford, and USC
completing its Shermanesque march through the top half of the Pac-10, the league
continues, unfortunately, to uphold its "USC and the little nine" image. Just
this weekend, we had LSU-Florida, Oklahoma-Texas, Penn State-Wisconsin,
Missouri-Oklahoma State, even Texas Tech-Nebraska -- all games featuring two
top-25 caliber teams that got more national hype than any Pac-10 contests. The
league needs, badly, a strong second or third team to emerge for anyone to take
it seriously. (Maybe I'm sipping the Kool-Aid, but does anyone else think a
certain team we all root for could fit the bill in two or three years?) We've
debated for years on the message boards whether a strong USC is good (takes
recruits that would otherwise be starring at Oregon or Cal or UCLA or Arizona
State) or bad (getting creamed 42-0 is bad for morale) for Stanford, but it's
indisputable that a USC this much better than the rest of the league is bad for
the Pac-10.
********** **********
**********
Premature BCS projections:
If you can believe it, we've now passed the
halfway point of the season and are starting to see which teams harbor
legitimate BCS hopes. So here we go with our early BCS forecast.
National Title Game,
No. 1 vs. No. 2: Penn State vs. USC
At this point, most prognosticators will have Texas in the
national championship. However, they have quite a gauntlet of a schedule
in the coming weeks, as we discussed earlier. Penn State, on the other
hand, has pillaged its way across its schedule so far. They will most
likely take out a decade's worth of frustration on a hapless Michigan team this
weekend. (When’s the last time Michigan was a 24-point underdog? Has this ever
happened?) Also, would you be surprised if USC made it to the title game?
They've had their requisite early mental hiccup and should win out. It'd
be a privilege to watch two teams so steeped in history play on the biggest
stage.
Early prediction:
Penn State 27, USC 24. Penn State has not displayed a weakness yet this
year. The Lions will win a close, physical game as their running game
takes pressure off their QB Clark. While Mark Sanchez is a fantastic QB,
the nasty Nittany Lion defense will negate the Trojan ground game, which has ten
options at RB, but no single every-down back. This will force Sanchez to
throw more often, leading to some of the mistakes we've seen so far this season
(three picks
vs. Arizona
State).
Rose Bowl, Big Ten vs.
Pac-10: Ohio State vs. Oklahoma
Of course
the Rose Bowl would love to have a Big Ten or Pac-10 team. They'll have to
settle for Ohio State, as no one in the Pac-10 will be worthy of a BCS invite,
with Cal dropping one too many between now and December. However, the
Granddaddy of them All will be able to boast a supremely entertaining
matchup. If Texas holds serve and wins the Big 12, Oklahoma would be a
logical choice with likely only one loss on its record. Stoops vs. Tressel
– two coaches who've both been recently pantsed by USC! In addition,
talented players like Terrelle Pryor, Malcolm Jenkins, Beanie Wells, Sam Bradford, Demarco Murray, and Manuel Johnson would make this must-see TV.
Early prediction: Oklahoma 35,
Ohio State 31. Two great defenses, but the offenses will tip the balance
in this game. Pryor and Wells with both star, but Bradford and the no-huddle
will open holes for the Sooner backs. Special teams will undoubtedly be fun to
watch with both
of these
coaches.
Orange Bowl, ACC vs.
At-Large: Wake Forest vs. Georgia
It seems
like no one wants to win the ACC. With Tommy Bowden finally flat-lining at
Clemson, no team looks strong enough to win the conference. Florida State? Miami? Virginia Tech hasn't made anyone's Top Ten since the East Carolina loss. So, that leaves the conference's most resourceful
overachievers, the Demon Deacons. Opposite them will be the
Florida/Georgia loser who didn't play in the SEC Championship game. Right
now, I think it will be the Dawgs.
Early projection: Georgia 27, Wake Forest
14. Georgia will try to do the same thing they did to Hawaii in last
year's Sugar Bowl. But Wake will make a game of it, as the gutty Riley Skinner keeps it closer than
the experts
believe.
Fiesta Bowl, Big 12 vs. At-Large: Texas vs. BYU
If Texas wins the
Big 12, we could have quite an intriguing matchup. Naturally, this depends
on BYU remaining undefeated. I just hope both Utah and BYU continue to
win, and that the rivalry can determine a BCS bid. As it stands now, you
would have Colt McCoy, the Heisman leader who put in the year's best performance
by a QB so far, and his swarming defense, led by blitz-monkey Will Muschamp,
against a talented BYU team with the nation's longest win streak.
Early prediction: Texas 30, BYU 21. In the
end, McCoy is too efficient and the Horn defense too fast for the Cougs, dashing
any dreams of 1984. BYU will show it belongs, but the Longhorns will
relish in the
post-VY BCS
breakthrough.
Sugar Bowl, SEC Champ
vs. At-Large: Florida vs. Pitt
Inevitably, the BCS produces some
stinkers. Just like the ACC, no one in the Big East appears to want to win
their conference, for fear of facing another conference champion. Look for
Urban’s disciples to win a second SEC title in three years. However, with
Penn State's anticipated undefeated record and USC's win streak, Florida will
get shut out of the title game this year. They'll take their frustration
out on an overmatched Panther team, as Tebow runs Meyer's dizzyingly complex
spread to perfection.
Early
prediction: Florida, BIG, as in 38-14. As in the camera operators
will have trouble following the ball, deciding whether it’s been passed off to
Jeff Demps up the middle, Harvin on reverses, Tebow on draws, or surgically
placed throughout the field to the fleet Gator of receivers. In short:
Meyer
and Tebow's
masterpiece.
********** ********** **********
We close with our picks section, also known as
Don't Quit Your Day Job:
Last week: Our
first losing week of the season had to come eventually, and Oklahoma and
LSU came up short, this was the week. We did say Penn State (-5) over
Wisconsin was our best bet, and a 41-3 final later, at least the
week wasn't a total wash.
2-1 straight-up, 1-2 against the spread.
Season:
12-6 against the spread,
14-4 straight-up.
Missouri (+7) at Texas
I do think Texas is due
to be upset these next few weeks, but I don't think Missouri is the team to pull it.
Seven points to these teams is like three for everyone else, and so I'm not
too worried going with the Horns here.
Texas 38, Missouri 28
Ohio State (-3) at Michigan State
You don't run on Ohio State. The Buckeyes
shut down Javon Ringer, and Michigan State, the Washington State of the Big Ten, finds a way to self-implode with the game on the line.
The Spartans haven't won a game this big in a decade -- and they've played
in plenty. Clutch at anti-clutch: who would you pick?
Ohio State 24, Michigan State
10
BYU
(-2.5) at
TCU
This should be the best
Thursday night game of the season. BYU wins on the arm of QB Max Hall, largely
negating TCU's strength, its rush D. The Cougars had the 28-27
excessive-celebration squeaker over Washington,
but has held all other opponents
to no more than 17, and won all those games by double digits. It'll be
closer here, but I think the Cinderella season continuess.
BYU 20, TCU 17
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