Week 4 Poll
1. USC (Change: +1)
2. Oklahoma (Change:
-1)
3. Florida (Change: 0)
4. Georgia (Change: 0)
5.
Missouri (Change: +1)
6. Texas Tech (Change: +1)
7. LSU (Change:
+1)
8. Texas (Change: +2)
9. Penn State (Change: +2)
10. South Florida (Change: +3)
11. Auburn (Change: -2)
12. Ohio State (Change:
-7)
13. West Virginia (Change: +5)
14. Wisconsin (Change: -2)
15.
Alabama (Change: -1)
16. BYU (Change: +3)
17. Utah (Change: 0)
18.
Clemson (Change: -1)
19. Oregon (Change: 0)
20. Tennessee (Change:
+6)
21. Cal (Change: -6)
22. Virginia Tech (Change: -1)
23. Wake Forest
(Change: +2)
24. East Carolina (Change: +1)
25. Notre Dame (Change: +1)
Added: Tennessee, Notre
Dame
Dropped:
Kansas, Arizona State
Poll justifications and team
psychoanalysis:
USC to No. 1. Oklahoma's done
nothing to drop, but USC, you did everything in your power to solidify a No. 1
ranking. Not to channel my inner John Madden and state the painfully
obvious, but if you dominate in every phase of the game a team that has appeared
in the national title the past two years running (and returns 19
starters to boot), you deserve a No. 1 ranking. As I said before the
season began, Mark Sanchez does look like the real successor to Palmer and
Leinart, not another imposter John David Booty. The Trojan offense is also
finding a go-to receiver in Damien
Williams. The pressure generated against the OSU defense
was just savage. Pete Carroll is a master on par with Nick Saban in terms of defensive
preparation.
Georgia does not slide,
unlike
in the AP and Coaches' polls, because a road win in the
SEC is a win. Yes, Stafford and the air attack did
not dominate as expected, but they played that game in an absolute hornets' nest in Columbia, So.
Car.
Auburn dips despite the in-conference win due to the fact
that they set the sport of college football back
40 years with that 3-2 win over Mississippi State. While Georgia has talents from
Stafford to Knowshon Moreno and Caleb King, Auburn does not have
Georgia's firepower and, to put it charitably, is struggling mightily to install Tony Franklin's version of the
spread.
Ohio State falls out of the top ten
with that performance. That display was significantly worse than
either of your BCS Championship game humiliations. Yes, there was no
Beanie Wells. Unless he's singlehandedly worth 32 points, that's still no
excuse. Also, as predicted before the season, OSU's chances of winning rapidly
approach zero when Todd Boeckman is tasked with leading the team back. He'll never win a game by himself for the
Buckeyes. Super-frosh Terrellle Pryor looked a true freshman against
USC's defense. It will be interesting in the coming weeks to see
if Pryor sees more playing time in meaningful games, instead of
glorified practice reps. Finally, this loss really stains the reputation of the Big Ten. More on that
below.
To end on a positive note, BYU, you straight up
pants-ed UCLA. Remember, the UCLA that beat Tennessee. But,
then, the Cougars threw for SEVEN touchdown passes against DeWayne
Walker's defense. Let's all hope that BYU and Utah continue to
march through the season unbeaten until their end-of-season rivalry game.
It would be great fun if this nationally-underappreciated, nasty rivalry could
determine a BCS berth.
Assorted thoughts...
1. The Pac-10 stinks. We have no right to complain all season any time we hear
about USC and the nine dwarves. Oregon State is the only other team that
looked halfway decent last weekend, and after their Penn State
showing, their reputation is Lindsay-Lohan level anyways. Oregon needed
overtime to get past Purdue, last relevant in 2002. (Am I the only one who
thinks Joe
Tiller looks like that dude
in the Diabetes commercials?) Cal
falling behind 21-3 to lose at Maryland: hey Weenies, this isn't
basketball.
ASU takes the cake though for their impeccable sense of
timing. It's a week before their Georgia visit and Georgia suddenly looks
vulnerable. Win, and College Gameday and the eyes of the nation will be focused
on Tempe. Plus, second in the Pac-10 is theirs for the taking after Oregon
and Cal look thoroughly mediocre. Then, they lose, at home, to UNLV in
overtime.
We're turning into the ACC West here. Bonus points go to
the state of Washington, with Washington getting smoked 55-14 at Oklahoma, and WSU losing by 28 points to Baylor.
Baylor!
2. The Bermuda triangle is alive and well.
If anyone needs to be convinced of the importance
of probability and random occurrences, just look at Michigan's visit
to Notre Dame this past Saturday. What are the odds that Michigan
would turnover the ball over six times, losing four fumbles and two gift-wrapped
Nick Sheridan interceptions? (No, the Irish did not force six turnovers.
They caused two – an interception in which they hit a throwing Nick Sheridan and
Kevin Grady's fumble.) What are the odds of a game featuring a torrential
downpour in the second half, and the most serious injury occuring to a coach.
What were the chances of the officiating crew making several questionable calls?
(Okay, bad example.) The probability of all of that happening during one
game is infinitesimally small, especially considering Michigan last had six
turnovers in one game since 1992.
However, I believe several things can
be gleaned from this game. Rich Rodriguez and Michigan are making
strides. The Wolverines went on several long drives, and actually
outgained Notre Dame by 100 yards. The drives stalled, but their existence
alone was a much-needed improvement over previous weeks. Also, I
believe the QB situation has been finalized. Steven Threet made good
decisions throwing the ball, exhibited leadership, and demonstrated toughness
after an apparent leg injury. Nick Sheridan did little to cause coaches or
fans to think he will ever be an FBS-level quarterback. Also, Sam McGuffie
firmly emerged as the primary running back, running for 131 yards and reminding
Big Blue of a frosh running back who broke onto the national scene four years
ago, Michael Hart. While this is a loss, Michigan can definitely build on
several positive aspects.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, may not be
back to the level of the first two years under Weis, but may also be
making strides. They capitalized on turnovers and executed their
first-half gameplan to perfection when Michigan's fumbles opened the door.
The oh-so-chic Jimmy Clausen does appear to have improved too. What
must concern the Irish coaching staff is their defense, which continually
allowed Michigan to march up and down the field, considering how painfully inept it had looked the previous two
weeks. Just like Stanford lucked out by getting Oregon State
in the season opener, getting Notre Dame Oct. 4 is a stroke of good
luck. I don't know how well the Card will be able
to stop Notre Dame's running backs, but they should be able to move the ball on the
Irish.
3. And on the horizon... Well, we don't
have quite the lineup of last week, but there will still be much fun to be had
this Saturday. At 9 a.m. Palo Alto time, we have Troy playing at Ohio
State, which is interesting for several reasons. Troy has challenged and
beaten several BCS teams in the last few years, including Oklahoma State last
year. I think I speak for all when I say that I'd like to see how Ohio
State rebounds from their experience in L.A. As a side note, Penn State
continues to pillage its way across its soft-as-a-baby's-bottom schedule,
playing Temple this week. At 12:30 PT, Tennessee and Florida renew one of
the SEC's nastiest rivalries. Afternoon SEC rivalry games are always fun.
especially when you're watching them in Atlanta bars, nearly getting killed for
cheering against Georgia. (There's no place like the SEC, and that's
probably a good thing for the rest of our country.) Finally, Georgia and
Arizona State play at 5 p.m. PT in Tempe. Georgia hasn't
traveled west of the Mississippi in quite some time, and how about
the coaching matchup of Mark Richt and Dennis Erickson? Let's just hope
this intersectional game is more entertaining than last week's.
Ranking the conferences
With the out-of-conference matchups winding down, it's
high time to whip out our No. 2 pencils and rank the BCS
conferences, but mixed in with a little regional diversity and someone who can put me in
my place. My best friend Jim Meza just graduated
college on the opposite coast (some place called Princeton), has been watching
college football with me for the past ten years and insulting
me all along, so I figured who better to go PTI-style with as we rank the BCS
six.
1. SEC
(Seeing as it's my column, these are my rankings, Jim. Home-field
advantage.)
Daniel's take: Jim, even you can't argue this one. Any
claim the Pac-10 had went up in flames last weekend, and the Big 12 and the Big 10 are a combined Big Four
and Little 18. Now that I'm in the South
and exposed to SEC games every week, the biggest difference to my
eyes is defense. (And fanbases' sobriety.) There's the NFL, there's the rest
of college football, and, at least for the last few years, there's the SEC somewhere in the
middle.
Jim's take: You'll get no argument from me on this
placement. The Pac-10 has some coaching talent, but just look at the
coaches in the ESS EEE CEE. In the West, there's Les Miles (1 SEC title, 1
National Title, 1 Sugar Bowl win), Nick Saban (two SEC titles, one national
title), Bobby Petrino (one Big East title and one Orange Bowl win), Houston
Nutt (2006 SEC West crown), and Tommy Tuberville (one SEC title, one BCS
appearance, one 13-0 season). It's
even more impressive in the East: Urban Meyer (one
SEC and national title), Mark Richt (two SEC titles, three BCS appearances with two
wins), Steve Spurrier (six SEC titles and one national title), and Phil
Fulmer (one SEC title, one national title, two BCS appearances). No other conference boasts a group of coaches like
that.
2. Pac-10
Daniel's take: Two, three and four are all pretty close
in my eyes, but USC's the tiebreaker, and that's a mighty good tiebreaker to
have. The Pac-10's best has proven itself about 30 points better than the Big
12's best (Oklahoma) and the Big 10's best (Ohio State) over the past few
seasons, so now all I need to do is show that the next level of Pac-10 teams,
the Arizona State-Oregon-Cal triumvirate, is within striking distance of Missouri-Texas Tech-Texas and Wisconsin-Penn State-whoever the Big
10's fourth-best team is this year. I know the
tendency is to overreact to an admittedly god-awful week from Oregon, Cal
and Arizona State, but I think they'd win their share of
games against those other schools. Oregon would score about 62 points against Texas Tech and you know
it.
Jim's take: Yes, Daniel, I do not share your Pac-10
homerism and I am going to disagree. I know you're a Pac-10 guy at heart,
but you have to admit it's the Big 12 this year. Yes, USC has beaten OU
and OSU in the past years. However, you conveniently left off USC's epic loss to
Texas (if you want to say they lost to Vince Young, I won't argue that too
strongly). The Big 12 is poised for a big year THIS year, with teams like
Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Missouri and Texas all in your top ten. Oklahoma
State (brought to you by T Boone Pickens and his plan
for renewable energy) runs an offense that gives them a chance to knock anyone off. Bo Pelini has an angry Nebraska team ready to
finally reemerge from the shadows. Dan Hawkins is using
his Zen magic to slowly reincarnate the Buffs. Also, the Big 12
has the strongest group of quarterbacks in the nation, by far,
including Chase Daniel, Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Graham Harrell, Todd Reesing, Zach Robinson, Joe Ganz, and Cody Hawkins.
3. Big 10
Daniel's take: I just can't respect the bottom of the
Big 12. Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas for 98 percent of its history – top-25
opponents would be 17-point favorites over these guys. heck, Oklahoma and
Texas have had years where they're touchdown-plus favorites over everyone but each other. At least in the Big 10, Minnesota and Indiana have
been in bowls this decade, Northwestern used to be
a sneaky-good 8-4 team, Illinois' on the rise and Iowa was in
the Rose Bowl five years ago. Plus, when the season's done,
I think you'll see Penn State and Wisconsin are better than any Big 12 teams but for
Oklahoma.
Jim's take: Pac-10 - Again Daniel, I'm not going to
mythically rank historical teams. I'll put the Pac-10 here at number three
THIS year. Here, USC does give the Pac-10 the edge over the Big Ten. The
Pac-10 has the monster USC and its nice "triumvirate," as you mentioned before. Oregon State has been dangerous under Mike Riley and your beloved Stanford has started to make
some noise in the Pac-10 for the first time in nearly a
decade. UCLA, despite its woodshed game last week, did beat surprise
the nation with its win over Tennessee. However, the bottom feeders, Washington State and Washington, are positively
wretched.
4. Big 12
Daniel's take: There you go again, Jimmy. (I always
wanted to paraphrase Ronald Reagan in my college football analysis.) I actually
have no idea what you're going to say here, but I know you always liked playing
with Texas when we'd go at it in NCAA 2004, so you probably have the Corn Belt
Conference higher. Speaking of which, given that there's a Sun Belt Conference,
how great would it be to call all the other leagues by their geographic stereotypes? Stanford could play in the Whiny Liberal League,
Jim Tressel could have kicked Lloyd Carr's butt all
these years in the Nice But Fat and Boring Old People Conference,
and the Jim Beam Conference could be No. 1 at literacy
and football alike. I hope we pull this off Google before I run for political office one
day…
Jim's take: Big Ten - Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice…shame on…me… (I've always wanted to paraphrase George W.
Bush in my football analysis.) I'll put the Big Ten here at four, leading
the second-class citizens of the BCS. Ohio State did get demolished, but it
appears that the league may be more than just Ohio State. Wisconsin
survived a landmine game at Fresno State and Penn State has dismembered all comers so far. While you have brought up
the recent history of the Big Ten, the rest
of the league appears to be thoroughly mediocre. Michigan is going through
its very own Great Leap Forward, while Purdue, again, found a
way to lose. Illinois has no defense and Indiana and Northwestern strike fear into the heart of no
one.
5. ACC
Daniel's take: Wait, there's still an ACC? Obviously
there's no luster at the top now that Florida State and Miami are shadows of
their former selves, but with Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest,
Clemson, Boston College and Maryland in the league, plus an out-of-conference schedule and a potential conference championship, solid
ACC teams could lose seven games in a season
(and do all the time). I guess that's backhanded praise, but don't
tell me for a second you think Rutgers or South Florida
or West Virginia would be within a mile of double-digit win totals with that type of a
schedule.
Jim's take: I've really ragged on the ACC of late, but
I'll agree with you on this placement. The ACC still has three-quarters of a year to redeem
itself.
6. Big East
Daniel's take: If we could form a WAC-Mountain West
hybrid and start a league with BYU, Utah, TCU, Fresno State and Hawaii, it would
actually have a pretty good claim on the five or six spot. If we're limiting
ourselves to present-day reality, though, Syracuse's performance thus far this
season is a great microcosm for Big East's performance on a national scale: the
less said, the better. I know, I know, there's West Virginia, Rutgers and South Florida, but don't mistake a gaudy record for an actual
sign of strength. The rest of the league is
as soft as that time your defense that time you tried bump-and-run
on me at football, and three touchdowns later, tried picking a
fight because you knew you were in over your head. You remember it just like that, right,
Jimmy?
Jim: I don't quite remember it that way,
but whatever helps you sleep at night. A Mountain West-WAC love
child would challenge the Big East in a serious way though. We might be selling
West Virginia short in a an overreaction to recent events, as they have beaten
Georgia and Oklahoma in BCS bowls in the last three years, albeit with
Coach Rod patrolling the sideline. Also, just to play devil's advocate,
South Florida does have a nice win against Kansas, a BCS team a year ago, while
the ACC has nary a high-profile win. But if we want to get into a
real cripple fight, the Big East has racked up more high-profile losses than the
ACC already this year, with Rutgers (to North Carolina), Cincinnati (to
Oklahoma), West Virginia (to East Carolina) and Syracuse (to anyone who
fields a football team) all going belly-up.
And finally, our picks section, also known as
Don't Quit Your Day Job:
Last week: The Sweep went 3-0, with a little
bit of luck on our side. As we projected, South Florida took Kansas by a field
goal, Wisconsin (barely) covered versus Fresno State and USC was all over Ohio
State. But, hey, we’ll take any and all luck we can get.
3-0 straight-up,
3-0 against the spread.
Season: 4-2 against the spread, 5-1
straight-up
Georgia (-6.5) at Arizona State
Neither
team looked great last week. Georgia, however, was a. on the road, b. against a
top-40 caliber team and, most importantly, c. won. Arizona State and the
Pac-10’s poor showing took a lot of luster off this one.
Georgia 27, Arizona
State 13
LSU (-2) at Auburn
Auburn beat Mississippi
State 3-2 last week, with a walkoff two-run homer in the ninth proving decisive.
Oh, wait, wrong sport. Let’s go with a team that cracked five points in its last
game.
LSU 24, Auburn 10
Wake Forest (+4.5) at Florida
State
Both teams are 2-0 and in the bottom half of the Top 25, which
thrills Wake Forest fans and angers FSU fans to no end. Scary thing is that we
might have to consider the winner the favorite in the ACC. Wake Forest needed a
last-second field goal to get past Mississippi two weeks ago, but I say Sam Swank comes up big again.
Wake Forest 27, Florida State 24
(OT)
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