Second Down: Offense
Notre Dame’s offense will improve more than any in the
country. This is a top-25 team, and this should be a top-25 offense. But after
last year’s implosion, the offensive line is the million dollar
question.
In this space last year, I led with, “Hold your tears,
but the Irish attack should suffer one of the biggest falloffs in the
country.” Sure enough, the Irish went from 31 points per game to 16,
easily the biggest dropoff in the country. In hindsight, the call was obvious,
as the Irish lost Brady Quinn, tailback Darius Walker, receivers Jeff Samardzija
and Rhema McKnight, and linemen Ryan Harris and Dan Santucci.
This year, I’m calling for the opposite: Notre Dame’s
offense will improve more than any collegiate attack. Part of it is the
schedule, part of it is simply a regression to Notre Dame’s historic mean, part
of it is a ton of returning experience and part of it is sheer talent.
The problem, pure and simple, was the Notre Dame run
game. Gaining just 75 yards per game, it was the worst in school history. The 59
sacks allowed were an NCAA-worst, and the 2.1 yards per carry equally
atrocious.
So I’m of two minds: on the one hand, Notre Dame has to
improve its rush game. The Irish did bring in three new starters last year,
while this year they return everyone but center John Sullivan, a sixth-round
draft choice of Minnesota.
On the other, I knew they were 3-9, but didn’t realize
just how bad the run game until those numbers leapt off the page at me. They
could improve their run-game numbers by 50 percent and still be pretty bad.
The linemen are four-star type guys, and the offensive
coaching staff is highly regarded, whatever your personal feelings about Charlie Weis. (Weis, for whatever reason, has engendered more hate from opposing fan
bases than any coach in recent memory. Who’s comparable? Pete Carroll? Steve Spurrier? They enjoy more of a grudging respect than the outright hatred Weis
seems to inspire.)
Thus, the question Notre Dame fans must have been
wrestling with all season is exactly why the O line was so awful. Specifically,
do last year’s struggles hint at problems that will haunt Notre Dame for seasons
to come…
- Maybe the Lemming effect is real and the Irish recruits
are all overrated? (More on that in Part 2.)
- Maybe the offensive coaching
is awful?
… or were the troubles just a one-time fluke
occurrence:
- Maybe events just snowballed, and the team kind of quit after a
few games?
I think the truth is closest to the latter – the line
just quit, and therefore, their results from last season aren’t indicative what
we should expect this year.
Given that assumption, I’m projecting that the line will
upgrade to respectable: 3.5 yards per carry, 130 ground yards per game, 30 sacks
allowed on the season. If so, there’s enough talent everywhere else to make
Irish a legit top-25 team that could sneak into the watered-down BCS. But, if
I’m wrong and last year’s woes are going to take Notre Dame years to iron out,
it could be 6-6 in South Bend, and another bowl-less offseason or two.
That line is Notre Dame’s million dollar question.
Moving on, true sophomore quarterback Jimmy Clausen (56
percent accuracy, seven touchdowns and six picks) did just as well as could be
expected given the chaos around him. He was one of the most highly-touted
recruits in his class, and so between his natural talent, Notre Dame’s projected
rise this year and a quarterback’s improvement between his freshman and
sophomore years, all signs point to a breakout year. Besides, with highly
regarded backups Evan Sharpley and Dayne Crist, the Notre Dame quarterback
position is, like Allstate, in good hands.
At first glance, a bigger question would be at tailback,
where no one of Team James Aldridge, Armando Allen and Robert Hughes broke 500
yards last year. However, I pin the struggles on the line, as Hughes averaged
5.5 per carry and the other two around four per touch, all healthy averages.
(Clausen was sacked so much as to singlehandedly drive the team’s rushing
average down from the mid-fours to 2.1. Unreal.)
Aldridge was the No. 7 tailback recruit in a 2006 class
that featured Knowshon Moreno, Emmanuel Moody, Stafon Johnson and Chris “Beanie”
Wells in its top-12. (And services other than Scout ranked him second only to
Wells that year.) Allen and Hughes were legit four-stars, so between their
rushing averages last year and the low odds of the recruiting services going
0-for-3, you have to think Weis will be able to find someone capable of putting
up a 1,200-yard season and slowing down the pass rush on Clausen just a little.
The plan is to use all three interchangeably, with Allen the speed back and
Aldridge and Hughes the power guys.
Tight end John Carlson leaves, which is a big loss to the
receiving game, as the tight end is a de facto receiver under Weis. (Stanford
fans wondering what to do with all its tight end recruits: here is the
template.) Carlson was a second-round draft pick and led the Irish with 372
receiving yards last year.
Golden Tate has the best name of the receivers, and thus
deserves this mention, but it’ll be Robby Parris and David Grimes leading the
way with Carlson gone. They combined for 600 receiving yards last year, which
doesn’t sound like much until you consider it was over 20 percent of the Irish’s
offense.
The two were the recruits of the three-star variety Notre
Dame was getting before Weis arrived, and nothing they’ve done at Notre Dame
suggests they’ll be world-beaters, but they are upperclass returning starters.
They’ll be consistent, and unlike the offensive line, it seems highly unlikely
they’ll soil their pants.