Third Down:
Defense
The Huskies’ defense was awful
last year, and doesn’t return much in the way of experience or star power. It
could be a long year in Seattle.
The one bona fide star on the
Huskies’ D, linebacker EJ Savannah, is currently not practicing with the team,
due to academic ineligibility and other, unspecified, team issues. To say
extracting information from Ty Willingham on Savannah’s return timetable is like
pulling teeth does a disservice to dentists.
"Sometimes those things can
change overnight,” Willingham told the Seattle Times. “Sometimes they may be
forever."
Guess that covers the
contingencies. (I would have had so much fun transcribing those press
conferences if his time and mine had overlapped at Stanford. If Harbaugh leaves,
is it too late to bring him back?)
Savannah led the team with 111
tackles and 12 tackles for loss last year, and his replacement is a former
walk-on with seven career tackles, Joshua Gage. So until (and if) Savannah
returns, Washington’s playing without the heart of its defense.
Washington allowed 5.4 yards per
carry and 210 yards per game against last year’s Pac-10, dead-last in the
league. Plus, three of the starters up front are new, and underclassmen to boot.
You can’t draw it up worse than this. Unless junior end Daniel Te’o-Nesheim, who
will look like Mean Joe Greene next to his teammates, can clone himself four
times over, this is going to be a long, long season for Washington against the
run.
The linebackers were the
strength of the defense, and they still might be even if Savannah’s gone, but
that speaks as much to the rest of the defense as to the linebackers. Junior
Donald Butler started last year, and sophomore Mason Foster had 25 tackles in
2007, so at least there’s experience (though the walk-on Gage weakens that
argument). But those three linebackers, all from California, were no better than
unranked two-stars out of high school.
In the back, the bad news is
obvious: gone is the only multiple-year starter, three-year starting safety Roy Lewis (a San Jose State transfer). Oh, and Washington allowed opponents to
complete 64 percent of their passes for 262 yards per game last season. That the
other three starters return is therefore somewhat of a mixed bag, but corners
Byron Davenport (a UCLA transfer) and Mesphin Forrester (add him to the All-Name
team) and free safety Jason Wells are all seniors and can only improve.
Then again, quarterback Jake Locker, he of the 43 percent accuracy in last year’s Pac-10, is tearing apart
this group in practice – completing at least 65 percent of passes each and every
practice thus far, per offensive coordinator Tim Lappano.
Surely Locker’s improved
somewhat, but his receivers are all inexperienced underclassmen, and, besides,
(and the only advice I remember from a year as a Stanford pre-med): when you see
hoof prints, don’t think of zebras. In other words, the most obvious diagnosis
is the correct one, whether you’re a doctor or a football analyst. So it’s
possible that the secondary has drastically improved but no one can see it
because Locker’s about to come out of nowhere for an all-world season. But the
better bet is that, once again, the secondary is going to struggle, as the 65
percent it’s allowing to Locker is pretty close to the 64.4 percent it allowed
last year. Why expect anything different this season?
Then again, Washington’s not
going to be scoring as much as last season and their front seven will be no
better, so unless teams really have it in for the Huskies and want to run up the
score (revenge for Ty’s fake punt at Notre Dame, anyone?), the secondary might
not be tested all that frequently after halftime anyways.
Don’t get me wrong: there’s
enough parity in college football and enough talent on this team, especially on
the offensive side, that Washington could get lucky and stay in bowl contention
until late November. At the same time though, this is hands-down the Pac-10’s
worst defense, and that’s as good a reason as any to pick the Huskies to finish
last in the conference for the second straight year.
Fourth Down: Extra
Points
In a way, Washington is kind of
the inverse of Arizona State offensively this year. The Devils return the vast
majority of their skill position players, but little on the line, while the
Huskies feature the opposite. Combine the two groups (and steal a top-tier
running back or two), and watch out USC.
Going four-deep at running back
and receiver, the Huskies have 11 underclassmen to just one junior (Hardy). As a
team, the Huskies are starting 11 underclassmen, four more than any other Pac-10
team. The nine freshmen in the two-deep is also a conference-high.
Related thought: Willingham’s
entering his fourth season as head coach, so judging by all the youth on the
depth chart and this past season’s top-20 recruiting class, recruiting is
actually one of the best arguments he can make for keeping his job. Despite the
conventional wisdom, he’s doing far better at attracting talent to Seattle than
his predecessor, Keith Gilbertson.
For the second straight year,
Washington has the Pac-10’s toughest schedule, if not the toughest slate in the
nation. The out-of-conference visitors are BYU, Oklahoma and Notre Dame, the
toughest group any BCS school faces. (Oregon State is a close second with Penn State, Hawaii and Utah.) Plus, with the round-robin Pac-10 schedule, that’s one
extra Pac-10 team Washington has to play instead of Directional State U. The
Huskies do have eight home games, but Husky Stadium is nothing special in terms
of home-field advantage anymore: Washington has performed nearly identically at
home (6-13) and away (5-11) under Willingham.
All told then, if Washington
starts 0-3 at Oregon, BYU and Oklahoma, entirely reasonable, and their next two
opponents, Stanford and Arizona, start hot, the Huskies could be underdogs in
all 12 games this season.
Stanford, meanwhile, has been
favored in just 12 games since the start of the Teevens era, or just two games
per season! Call LongWinded: turns out we’ve actually outperformed our talent
all these years after all. (Or, if you’re an underdog 80 percent of the time and
a favorite just 20 percent of the time, it makes sense that you’re going to win
more as an underdog than you’ll lose as a favorite.) This season, I’d say we’ll
be favored in three games: San Jose State, Washington State and either Arizona
or at Washington.
Here’s a hidden factor that
could tilt the game: the Huskies get a bye between the visits from Oklahoma and
Stanford, whereas the Cardinal will be playing their fifth game in five weeks.
At least Washington State is the only other Pac-10 team to catch a bye before
the Card, and Stanford enjoys a bye before the Washington State game
too.
I would be remiss if I didn’t
end on a positive note, and I would be equally negligent if I didn’t mention
that last year’s 4-9 Husky squad could have quite easily been 9-4. Of their nine
losses, a full five came by a touchdown or less, whereas none of their wins did.
The 0-5 mark in close games is normally a giant arrow up, for Washington should
improve two wins by luck alone.
So I don’t think the Huskies are
headed for a Stanford 2005-type of Pac-10 last place. But the schedule is an
absolute bear, and the Huskies’ depth is perilously thin at several positions.
Instead then, I think 2008 will be like their season last year, where they’ll go
about .500 in the bottom half of the Pac-10 and unexpectedly challenge a top
team or two (like taking USC to the wire last season). Unfortunately, given the
depth of this league, that’s not going to be enough to move out of the
cellar.