First Down: Quick
Hitters
Stanford @ Washington –
Sept. 27
Last Year: Washington
27, Stanford 9
Side-by-Side Stats
Stats listed Opponent/Stanford/Pac-10 Average. All
stats Pac-10 only to control for differences in out-of-conference schedule
strength.
2007 Offense:
Yards Per Game:
399/297/382
Points Per Game: 30.2/16.4/26.7
Rushing Yards Per Game:
203/79/144
Yards Per Carry: 4.8/2.3/3.7
Passing Yards Per Game:
191/218/238
Yards Per Pass: 6.3/5.9/6.7
Returning Offensive Starters: 7/7/6
2007 Defense:
Yards Per Game:
465/473/382
Points Per Game: 35.7/31.1/26.7
Rushing Yards Per Game:
215/193/144
Yards Per Carry: 5.4/4.7/3.7
Passing Yards Per Game:
250/280/238
Yards Per Pass: 7.4/7.8/6.7
Returning Defensive Starters: 6/9/6.3
Bottom Line:
2007 Record:
(4-9, 2-7)/(4-8, 3-6)
2008 Predicted Points Per Game: 25/23/26.4
2008
Predicted Points Allowed Per Game: 33/28/26.4
2008 Projected Record: (3-9,
2-7)/(3-9, 2-7)
2008 Projected Pac-10 Finish:
10th/9th
Second Down: Offense
Joe Fan who picks Jake Locker to his All-Pac-10 team is
seriously misguided. Yes, he can run, and yes, he was just a true frosh, but
consider:
1. Only Tavita Pritchard had a worse QB rating than Locker
in the Pac-10 last year. Pritchard, and the two quarterbacks just ahead of
Locker in QB rating, Oregon State's Sean Canfield and Cal's Nate Longshore, are
all in battles just to hang on to their starting jobs. I certainly don't see
them on too many Preseason All-Pac-10 lists.
2. Locker was the only Pac-10 quarterback to misfire on
more passes than he completed. He ended the season with 47.3 percent accuracy
overall, and a truly atrocious 43 percent in-conference. Locker is one for lofty goals, telling The Seattle Times this past week he hopes to complete 65 percent of his passes this season, an 18 percent boost. Hope springs eternal.
3. Locker was one of only three Pac-10 QBs to throw more
picks (15) than scores (14).
Unsurprisingly then, Washington’s overall passing yardage
and efficiency was near the bottom of the conference. (At press time, Locker was day-to-day with a hamstring pull.)
Between a dead-cat bounce and Locker’s rise to the
sophomore class, he should improve his passing stats this year. (Although a
starting receiver trio of myself, my father and my brother has nearly as much
Pac-10 experience as Washington's corps – more on that in a minute.) But right
now, at least statistically, he’s closer to Wayne Younger, Florida
International’s backup quarterback, than Vince Young.
Despite Locker’s passing struggles, Washington posted its
highest point total in five years, and actually outscored USC in the Pac-10 last
year. Why? An insanely good 203 rush yards per game, on 4.9 yards per carry.
Certainly, Locker, who ran for 986 yards and 13 scores, deserves credit. (And
certainly, in the interest of fairness, his legs bring a dimension offensively
that few other Pac-10 quarterbacks can match.) Much of it is also a function of
an offensive playbook designed to exploit a mobile QB’s legs – look at West
Virginia’s 6.2 yards per carry last year, Illinois’ 5.7 or Arkansas’ 6.0. But a
lot of the credit goes to a conventional, between-the-tackles runner who quietly
was the Pac-10’s most underrated back, especially now that everyone gave that
title to Yvenson Bernard.
2007 senior Louis Rankin ran for 1,294 yards on 5.6 per
carry, and Stanford fans should know – he torched the Cardinal for 255 yards
last year. This year, in a significant dropoff, Brandon Johnson looks to try to
fill Rankin’s shoes. Johnson is a true sophomore who ran for just 198 yards last
year, and was not an uber-elite recruit out of high school. Junior JR Hasty and
true frosh like Demetrius Bronson (if academically eligible) could also figure into the mix, but Rankin’s
absence, and the lack of quality depth in his void, could cost Washington in
close games.
Washington, unbelievably, has not had a First Team
All-Conference offensive lineman since 2001. Center Juan Garcia had a decent
shot, after turning down the NFL to return for his senior season, but an injury
in the spring leaves him questionable for the 2008 season.
Four starters do return, however, and junior Paul Homer is
the Huskies’ Owen Marecic, one of the best blocking fullbacks you’ve never heard
of. Last year’s line deserves credit for Washington’s superb rushing yardage,
and allowing fewer than two sacks per game. With all the returnees, this year’s
line should only be stronger.
However, the numbers may not reflect that, because
receiver, just like tailback,is a question. Seven of last year’s top eight
receivers are gone, with the only returnee senior tight end Michael Gottlieb.
Big things are expected out of true frosh Chris Polk, a USC commit originally
who’s been on campus since spring. However, the rest of the three-deep is
entirely freshmen and sophomores, none of them as highly-touted as Polk. The
cornucopia of youth may serve Washington well in 2010, but right now, the
Huskies’ receivers could be the league’s worst.