Super Regionals: Stanford (37-22-2) at No.
5 Cal State Fullerton (40-20)
Game
1: Friday, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 2: Saturday, 4:30 p.m.
(ESPN)
Game 3 (if necessary): Sunday, 7 p.m.
(ESPN2)
Audio: KZSU, 90.1 FM, or streamed live at
kzsu.stanford.edu.
How Fullerton got here:
No. 5 national/No. 1 regional
seed Fullerton won the last two of their three contests against No. 2 regional
seed UCLA to advance to Supers, though the decisive game Monday night was not
without drama. Fullerton took a 2-0 lead in the third, before the teams each
scored two in the fourth and one in the fifth. The Titans would keep their 5-3
lead until a two-out UCLA single narrowed the lead to 5-4 in the seventh. But
the Bruins stranded a runner in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings, and lost
by that 5-4 final margin.
Stanford’s potential
path:
With a win, Stanford would
face the Florida State/Wichita State winner to open their first College World
Series since a national runner-up finish to Rice in 2003. Florida State is the
No. 4 seed nationally, while Wichita State is a No. 2 Regional seed, advancing
after upsetting Oklahoma State.
The path wouldn’t get any
easier for the Cardinal, who would likely play No. 1 national seed Miami were
they to win their CWS opener. All told, thirteen of the six remaining squads are
No. 1 seeds, including all eight national seeds.
Thus, as the implicit No. 12
national seed, Stanford figures to be an underdog in the sizeable majority of
its remaining games. Indeed, though the Cardinal’s RPI is now 18, up five spots
from a week ago, Stanford’s opponent this weekend, Fullerton, ranks 13 in the
computers.
National picture:
Nationally, three Pac-10 teams
are still alive, Arizona, Arizona State and Stanford – all one seeds. Add in
Fullerton, Fresno State and UC-Irvine, and that’s six West Coast teams in the
final 16. Nationally, No. 2 seed UC-Irvine, No. 2 seed Wichita State, and No. 4
seed Fresno State are the only non-one seeds to advance, so the West Coast is
slightly outperforming their seeding to-date. The ACC leads BCS conferences with
four teams in the Super Regional, followed by the Pac-10 (three), the SEC (two)
and the Big 12 (one).
Series preview:
Batting:
The Titans used the same nine
batters in the same order throughout their Regional. Given that Fullerton’s
three most-used pitchers are all righties, we can insert lefties Joey August and
Brendan Domaracki into the likely Stanford batting order, and compare the lineups at
each spot.
CSF
1. CF Josh Fellhauer, L: .333,
.517 SLG, 7 HR, 35 K
2. SS Christian Colon, R:
.335, .453 SLG
3. RF Erik Komatsu, L: .348,
.576 SLG, 8 HR, 35 BB, 23 K, 18 SB, .453 OBP
4. 1B Jared Clark, R: .301,
.549 SLG, 9 HR, 24 2B, 37 BB, 43 K
5. DH Brian Wilson, L:
.333, .542 SLG, 14 BB, 5 K, .455 OBP
6. LF Gary Brown, R: .289,
.409 SLG, 24 SB
7. 3B Joel Weeks, S: .323,
.414 SLG
8. C Dustin Garneau, R:
.250, .409 SLG
9. 2B Joe Scott, R: .295,
.385 SLG
Team (per-game stats): 7.1 runs, .305,
.452 SLG, .395 OBP, 3.7 BB, 5.3 K, 2.0 SB (71%)
Stanford
1. 2B Cord Phelps, B: .352,
.585 SLG, .447 OBP, 13 HR, 38 BB, 35 K
2. LF Joey August, L: .307,
.393 SLG
3. C Jason Castro, L: .372,
.601 SLG, .423 OBP, 12 HR
4. 1B Brent Milleville, R:
.307, .546 SLG, 10 HR
5. DH Randy Molina, L: .339,
.497 SLG, .411 OBP
6. CF Sean Ratliff, L:
.298, .654 SLG, 20 HR, 30 BB, 76 K
7. RF Brendan Domaracki, L:
.259, .374 SLG
8. 3B Zach Jones, R: .259,
.386 SLG, 16 BB, 53 K
9. SS Jake Schlander, R: .232,
.253 SLG
Team: 7.5 runs, .300, .478
SLG, .375 OBP, 4.1 BB, 7.3 K, 0.7 SB (75%)
I underlined which team I
thought was stronger overall and at each spot in the order. Close calls tended
to go in Stanford’s direction because their batters produced their stats against
a tougher schedule. Fullerton does a better job hitting for contact and avoiding
strikeouts, but Stanford still manages to score slightly more runs per game
because of its ability to hit for power.
Pitching:
Obviously, ranking pitchers and
distinguishing between starters and relievers is somewhat arbitrary. When in
doubt, I looked to how their managers used them in the Regionals. I only rank
three starters because the Super Regionals are best-of-three.
CSF
Starters:
1. R Jeff Kaplan: 11-2, 4.37 ERA, 105 IP,
89 K, 33 BB, 14 HR, .278 BA
2. R Cory Arbiso: 12-3, 4.21
ERA, 98.1 IP, 68 K, 14 BB, 9 HR, .282 BA
3. R Daniel Renken: 5-5, 4.11 ERA, 81 IP,
80 K, 22 BB, 5 HR, .294 BA
Bullpen:
1. R Adam Jorgenson: 2-1, 5.18 ERA, 11 SV,
48.2 IP, 13 K, 14 BB, 4 HR, .247 BA
2. R Ryan Ackland: 1-1, 2.10 ERA, 25.2 IP,
14 K, 5 BB, 0 HR, .267 BA
3. L Jason Dovel: 2-3, 4.93 ERA, 45.2 IP,
45 K, 16 BB, 3 HR, .226 BA
4. R Travis Kelly: 1-1, 6.53 ERA, 41.1 IP,
24 K, 18 BB, 5 HR, .302 BA
Team: 4.52 ERA, 478 K, 176 BB, 51 HR,
.275 BA, .971 FLD
Stanford
Starters:
1. R Erik Davis: 7-3, 4.59
ERA, 96 IP, 91 K, 34 BB, 8 HR, .252 BA
2. L Jeremy Bleich: 2-2, 1.09 ERA, 33
IP, 26 K, 21 BB, 0 HR, .197 BA
3. R Jeffrey Inman: 7-2, 4.22 ERA, 64
IP, 40 K, 26 BB, 4 HR, .299 BA
Bullpen:
1. R Austin Yount: 5-3, 3.54 ERA, 56 IP, 31
K, 16 BB, 4 HR, .261 BA
2. R Drew Storen: 4-3, 2.90 ERA, 6 SV, 49.2
IP, 44 K, 13 BB, 2 HR, .251 BA
3. R Danny Sandbrink: 2-1, 2.85 ERA, 53.2
IP, 27 K, 18 BB, 8 HR, .262 BA
4. R Max Fearnow: 2-1, 6.09 ERA, 44.1 IP,
30 K, 24 BB, 7 HR, .284 BA
Team: 4.43 ERA, 388 K, 226
BB, 49 HR, .277 BA, .974 FLD
Arbiso gets the nod over
Bleich because I’d rather have a consistently solid starter than a pitcher who
has the potential to be spectacular but just came off an injury. CSF has much
better strikeout and walk numbers and HR and BA numbers similar to Stanford’s,
yet the Cardinal get the overall nod because they somehow allowed earned fewer
runs per game against better competition. I don’t know how that’s possible over
the length of a season, given that CSF’s staff won or pushed in every other
listed stat. (Two leads upon further investigation. One, Stanford’s opponents
slug .401, CSF’s .418. Second, CSF has actually allowed five fewer total runs
to-date, so maybe Stanford’s scorekeepers just charge more errors in key
situations, accounting for the ERA difference. However, a margin of five runs is
still close enough that Stanford’s pitchers get the coveted overall underline
with the strength of schedule tiebreaker.)
Intangibles:
Stanford swept CSF earlier
this season. Edge Stanford.
Erik Davis will have started
twice within the past week when the series starts on Friday. And No. 2 pitcher
Jeremy Bleich is still working his way back from injury. CSF needed five games
to win its Regional too, but Stanford’s one-two pitchers are in a uniquely tough
situation. Edge CSF.
Both teams’ pitching staffs
are righty-dominated. Stanford has more lefties in the lineup, and more of its
top hitters are lefties. Edge
Stanford.
CSF is 41-20 to Stanford’s
37-22-2. But CSF is 27-7 at home, and Stanford just 13-11-1 on the road. Teams
play most of their cupcakes at home, so the discrepancy isn’t as big as it
seems, but that’s obviously an edge for
CSF.
Stanford keys:
I think Stanford’s biggest key
will be if Davis is rested enough to give a quality start Friday, and Bleich
healthy enough to give a quality start when he’s called upon (presumably
Saturday). Offensively, Stanford knows it can count on the one through six
hitters, so again the X-factor will be whether the bottom of the order can
scratch out hits – like Jake Schlander did in Monday’s Regional Final.
Bottom line:
The two teams are incredibly
evenly matched. Though I gave Stanford the nod in both overall hitting and
overall pitching, those margins are George-W.-Bush-in-2000 thin, and the
Fullerton faithful could just as easily argue their hitters and pitchers are
stronger. Even the above intangibles seem to balance out.
So to anyone who knows with
any certainty who’s going to win this series, I have some land on the moon I’d
love to sell you. Expect the games to be close, and in a close baseball game,
one ball being hit five feet further or five feet to the left can make all the
difference. And, obviously, we don’t know who will catch that luck until they
play the games.
But the conventions of sports
writing dictate that I make a prediction, so if for no other reason than the
school on my diploma (well, unless I truly mess up really soon), let’s say Stanford in three.
Are you fully
subscribed to The Bootleg? If not, then
you are missing out on all the top Cardinal coverage we provide daily on our
website, as well as our full-length feature articles in our glossy magazine.
Sign up today for the biggest and best in Stanford sports coverage with TheBootleg.com (sign-up) and The Bootleg Magazine (sign-up)!