Game
preview:
Pepperdine vs. Arkansas
1 p.m. Friday,
Sunken Diamond
Recent history: None. The teams last played in
1979, a 5-4 Arkansas victory.
Matchups: Pepperdine's RHP
Nathan Newman (7-4), 3.52 ERA vs. Arkansas' LHP Cliff Springston
(5-2), 3.83 ERA. Newman has a slightly better ERA against slightly worse
competition. What's more important is that he will have the luxury of
facing eight right-handed Arkansas batters. Maybe the Hogs will find a lefty or
two to sub in, but that's a major edge for the Waves.
Overview:
Arkansas' better offensively; Pepperdine's better defensively. The Hogs
can really hit for power, so Pepperdine's habit of giving up the long ball could
be costly. Expect a close game, but I can't get past three factors: Pepperdine's
ranked slightly higher, Pepperdine's a lot closer and Arkansas is really
going to struggle against a right-handed pitcher.
Prediction:
Pepperdine 6, Arkansas
4
No. 2 Pepperdine
(36-19)
Road Record:
11-14
RPI:
29
Vs. RPI Top 50: 8-8
Last Ten:
7-3
Strength of Schedule: 39
Runs
per game: 6.63
Batting average:
.318
Home runs: 34
Runs allowed per
game: 5.57
Opponents' batting average:
.297
Home runs allowed: 46
Top
Pitchers:
RHP Nathan
Newman: 7-4, 3.52 ERA, 87.0 IP, 60 K, 37 BB
LHP Scott Alexander: 7-4, 4.44 ERA, 71.0 IP, 45 K, 51 BB
LHP Matt Bywater: 7-2,
4.97 ERA, 76.0 IP, 40 K, 41 BB
LHP Robert Dickmann:
3-5, 5.46 ERA, 62.2 IP, 35 K, 17
BB
Closer:
RHP Nick Gaudi:
5-1, 2.68 ERA, 40.1 IP, 33 K, 10 BB, 13 SV
Likely
lineup:
1. 3B Bryce Mendonca, R, .335
2. DH Matt Aidem, L,
.322
3. LF Eric Thames, L, .407 , 13 HR, SLG .769 (injured)
4. SS Chase d'Arnaud, R, .306, 8
HR
5. 1B Ryan Heroy, R, .316
6. CF Nate Simon, L,
.307
7. C Trent Diedrich, R,
.308
8. 2B Denny Duron, R, .285
9. RF Donald Brown, L, .252
Key reserves:
OF David Harris, R,
.288
C Travis Tartamella, R, .202
The dirt:
Thames earns that
bold face: he is a one-man offense. It almost makes you forget
six of his teammates are also north of .300 and that
the Waves' lineup is nicely split between righties and lefties. However, he was injured late in the season and will not play this weekend -- a major stroke of bad luck for the Waves.
Pepperdine's staff is
lefty-dominant, a bit of a rarity in college baseball. That the righty Newman
will pitch against Arkansas does little for Stanford: the Waves' next three
pitchers are all lefties, exactly what you would want against the Cardinal. If
the series plays out to form and it's Stanford and Pepperdine for all the
marbles, Pepperdine has a deep stable of lefties to throw at the Card, who will
need big games from right-handed guys like Brent Milleville, Toby Gerhart and
Jeff Whitlow.
Daniel's Odds of Advancing:
25 percent. The Waves are in for a dogfight
against Arkansas, who should have the support of smart Stanford fans. But if Pepperdine
can solve Springston, if their staff can ward off the homers and if someone can fill
Thames' shoes offensively, the host Cardinal better gear up for quite
the battle.
No. 3 Arkansas
(36-19)
Road Record: 8-13
RPI:
34
Vs. RPI Top 50: 11-16
Last Ten:
7-3
Strength of Schedule: 24
Runs per game: 7.52
Batting average:
.293
Home runs: 77
Runs allowed per game:
6.09
Opponents' batting average:
.274
Home runs allowed: 57
Top
Pitchers:
LHP Cliff Springston: 5-2, 3.83 ERA, 82.1 IP, 59 K, 24 BB
LHP Dallas
Keuchel: 4-2, 4.46 ERA, 70.2 IP, 58 K, 28 BB
RHP Justin Wells: 3-2,
6.05 ERA, 74.1 IP, 73 K, 23 BB
Closer:
RHP Travis Hill:
2-2, 5.94 ERA, 33.1 IP, 25 K, 13 BB, 4 SV
Likely
lineup:
1. RF Chase Leavitt, R, .360, 11 HR
2. 2B Ben Tschepikow, L,
.303
3. 3B Logan Forsythe, R, .352, 7 HR
4. 1B Andy Wilkins, R,
.331
5. LF Casey Coon, R, .308
6. CF Brett Eibner, R, .303, 8
HR
7. DH Aaron Murphree, R, .310, 14 HR
8. C Jeff Nutt, L,
.265
9. SS Tim Smalling,
R, .259, 9 HR
Key
reserves:
OF Andrew
Darr, R, .344
IF Jacob House, L, .295
C Ryan Cisterna, R, .236, 9 HR
The dirt:
Few teams in the
country can match the Razorbacks' ability to hit for power at the bottom of the
lineup. The only problem with the batting order is rather obvious:
eight of the likely starters hit righty.
Springston's numbers are legit,
but luckily for Stanford he's starting against Pepperdine. If the Card and the
Hogs meet in game two, figure the 'Backs will go with their top lefty, Keuchel,
against Stanford's left-handed lineup.
After Keuchel and Springston, the
pitching staff gets dicey, so if you're Stanford, I think you hope that you face
Arkansas later in the weekend. The Razorbacks, meanwhile, need to improve upon
an 8-13 road record if they want to face anyone later in the weekend.
Daniel's
Odds of Advancing:
20 percent. Like the Pac-10, the SEC is one
of the nation's top baseball conferences, and so Arkansas' stats should be
viewed in a more favorable light than Pepperdine's or UC-Davis'. Still, the
Razorbacks really need to ride their top two starters to wins. Catching
other teams' left-handed pitchers wouldn't hurt either.
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