Oregon Shot Chart Analysis

The Leunen Sandwich!

The Bootleg's Basketball Stats Analyst Cameron Tana provides outstanding insights into the Oregon's shooting strengths and weaknesses. Let's hope the Stanford coaching staff has done its homework the way our guy has! Cameron has broadcast Stanford MBB games, both as Dave Flemming's color man in 1996-97 & as play-by-play announcer in 1997-98. He has also done NBA game charting for www.82games.com

Effective Field Goal Percentage:

The strength of the Oregon, Stanford's opponent on Sunday is the Ducks' impressive shooting. Oregon's "effective field goal percentage" is an outstanding 57.2%, ranked sixth in the nation according to kenpom.com. (Effective field goal percentage weights three-pointers 50% more). The Ducks achieve this percentage fairly equally between two-pointers and three-pointers as its two-point field goal percentage is 57.1% (also sixth in the nation) and its three-point shooting of 123 for 322 is also equivalent to an effective percentage of 57.3% (62nd in the nation). It would appear that taking away the three-pointer would not be an effective defensive strategy against Oregon, but an examination of shot chart data reveals more.

Sportsline.com has posted shot charts for twelve of Oregon's games. Oregon shot an effective field goal percentage of 61% in these games, better than its season average as shot charts were not posted for the Arizona State and Cal games. The data show that Oregon makes 73% of its lay-ups and dunks, but it shoots two-point jumpers and three-pointers at a similar percentage around 45%. Due to the extra point awarded for three-pointers, three-pointers were nearly as effective as lay-ups and dunks at 69%. The statistics bear out the idea that defenses want to force Oregon (and probably many other teams) into shooting two-point jumpers. Here is the breakdown for the team and four of the Ducks key shooting weapons.

 

Layups and Dunks

2 Pt Jumpers

3 Pointers

Team

147-202

73%

115-256

45%

106-231

69%

Porter

11-19

58%

27-56

48%

29-77

57%

Hairston

25-35

71%

20-50

40%

24-38

95%

Taylor

15-27

56%

12-30

40%

23-51

68%

Leunen

28-32

88%

11-27

41%

17-37

69%

The shot chart data also shows where on the floor the Ducks are most and least proficient when shooting jumpers.  Shooting two-point jumpers, the Ducks are best in the key area and worst in the wing areas.  Shooting three-pointers, the Ducks are very good on the wings and straightaway and do not shoot or make many from the baseline.

Oregon

FGM

FGA

Effective FG%

Baseline 2 Ptr

34

74

46%

Key 2 Ptr

44

89

49%

Wing/Semicircle 2 Ptr

37

93

40%

Baseline 3 Ptr

2

12

25%

Wing 3 Ptr

88

183

72%

Top of the Key 3 Ptr

16

36

67%

Here are notes about shooting areas of other key Duck players:

» Tajuan Porter is not shooting well from the top of the key (2 for 12). He also is better shooting three-pointers from NBA range (14 for 31) then closer in (15 for 46) as presumably this gives the 5' 6" player more space to shoot.

» Malik Hairston has had a monster shooting year so far. He loves the three-point wing areas deeper than the free throw line extended (17 for 23). His midrange game is not as good as he is just 10 for 30 on his two-point jumpers outside of the key.  

» Bryce Taylor also likes three-pointers behind the free throw line extended (22 for 45). He has made only 1 of 6 of his baseline threes. He also struggles with midrange game as he is just 4 for 18 outside of the key.  

» Post Maarty Leunen is excellent close to the basket, but he is only 5 for 14 on jumpers from inside the key. His favorite three-point spot is from straightaway (5 for 9).

The shot chart data point to a Cardinal strategy of defending the Ducks' three-pointers closely, but helping out on drives such that the Ducks have to pull up from midrange.


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