Pre-Game Reflections:
As an undergrad, I had a special aversion to USC, or, as a
fellow Bootie calls it - "_._._." Cal was, then and now, our chief
rival. Still, the Voldemort of Pac-10 schools, the
"it-that-shall-not-be-named school" was, as seen through my undergrad
eyes, a football factory, a party school, a place to go if you could not get in
elsewhere (as long as your parents could afford it).
Some things haven't changed. Trojan U. is still a football
factory. But a lot of other things are different. Today, one would have to say
that USC is more similar to Stanford than any other Pac-10 school. Here's why.
USC and Stanford are the only private institutions in the Pac-10. Each has a
relatively small undergraduate population (in the order of 6,500) and
internationally known graduate programs. The two schools' entering freshmen
classes have credentials that exceed other Pac-10 schools. Yes, USC has now
surpassed UCLA and Cal with its entering class credentials. The entry
requirements for recruited athletes remain "flexible" at USC - at
least far more so than Stanford - but this should not obscure the overall record
that USC has established.
When it comes to women's basketball, there are more
parallels. USC and Stanford are the only Pac-10 schools to win an NCAA
championship (UCLA won during the pre-NCAA era). USC has not fared as well as
Stanford in the last two decades, but the Trojans under Mark Trakh have made the
NCAA tournament most years and, in the last couple of years, have had some
remarkably strong recruiting successes, probably second only to Stanford. Two
years ago, USC signed the number one high school player - Jacki Gemelos.
Consider Nneka Ogwumike, the highly-sought Texas forward who had USC on her list
(for Nneka, by the way, the LA-based private institution apparently held strong
attraction, with private schools such as Duke, Notre Dame, and Baylor also on
her list). It is not an accident that USC was in the running, and we are
fortunate that Nneka chose Stanford. Alas, another WBB parallel is not a happy
one for either team. Both USC and Stanford have been hit hard by injuries,
including the dreaded ACL. For USC, the record is particularly bleak, with
Gemelos yet to play a game for the Trojans (out the first year with an ACL tear
and the second year with a renewed tear). Stephanie Gilbreath, another five-star
perimeter recruit, is also out this year with an ACL tear. Finally, there are
parallels to be found in the coaching styles - both coaches work hard to prepare
their teams, but are relatively undemonstrative during the games. Coach Trakh
has yet to show that his teams can win a Pac-10 championship, but this may
change when more of USC's highly touted recruits are able to play.
So, what is the pregame prognosis? A Stanford victory is
far from assured, particularly after the lackluster overall performance against
UCLA. USC has an all Pac-10 candidate at the post - Nadia Parker, averaging just
under 12 points a game. And the Trojans have a number of three-point shooters,
led by Camile LeNoir (19 threes at a .352 clip) and Brynn Cameron (19 threes at
a .302 clip). USC's outside shooting, like Stanford's, has been inconsistent.
While strong, the USC post game is unlikely to be pivotal in this contest. The
game may be decided by who can hit the outside shots.
Alas, these pregame words prove once again all too prescient.
The Game:
For the first time in this writer's memory, Stanford is
swept on a Southern California visit. Unlike the UCLA game, Stanford played with
energy and some balance on Sunday afternoon. In fact, Stanford played even or
better than USC in every category, except two: perimeter- and free
throw-shooting. Stanford out-boarded the Trojans by a 38 to 23 margin. The USC
defeat was especially hard to take because it appeared likely that Stanford
would win this game. Against UCLA, as the clock wound down under five minutes,
it became increasingly obvious that UCLA would prevail. Not so on Sunday against
USC. In the last few minutes, Stanford built up a five-point lead and appeared
on the verge of taking control of the contest. But outside shooting brought the
Trojans back. Stanford still had a one-point lead under 40 seconds when USC
wound down the game clock and Camille LeNoir converted on her two-pointer to
give USC the final margin. But not without a final opportunity for Candice Wiggins, who drove down the court with under ten seconds on the game clock.
Guarded by Allison Jaskowiak and (it seemed) most of the rest of her teammates,
Wiggins was unable to convert on a last-second shot in the lane. LeNoir, back
from an injury last season and still limited to 25 minutes a game, was a
difference-maker. In addition to the game-winner, she hit a three-point shot to
start the scoring and went on to hit four more three-pointers.
Perimeter shooting was absolutely crucial for this
first-ever Mark Trakh-coached victory over Stanford for USC. In last year's
matchups, USC three-point attempts consistently clanked off the rim. Not so on
Sunday. The Trojans converted an impressive11-19 from beyond the arc, the best
this season for a USC team that has shot inconsistently. In fact, USC was better
from three-point range (58%) than they were from the free throw line (57%) or
from closer in (47% conversion rate). LeNoir went 5-7 from three-point range,
but a number of other teammates joined in the barrage (Aarika Hughes was 2-2 and
Australian Heather Oliver was 2-3 in threes). Stanford sophomore Jayne Appel had
a phenomenal game, going 10-14 with 11 boards, but she missed the first of two
free throws that could have given Stanford a two-point lead with about 40
seconds on the clock. From three-point range, Stanford was a disappointing 3-20
(Wiggins 1-8 and Hones 1-5). From the charity stripe, Stanford shot only 11-20
(55%). In a game this tight, one more long-range conversion or two more free
throws could have made the difference.
It should not be said that Stanford did not learn from the
UCLA loss. Stanford was in this game throughout and appeared to be pulling away
with a five-point lead with only minutes on the clock. Players that struggled in
the UCLA game made significant offensive contributions. Kayla Pedersen had 14
points and 8 boards. Jillian Harmon had 7 points and 7 boards. Rosalyn Gold-Onwude
had five points, three assists, and only one turnover. JJ Hones started the
game, played 28 minutes, and had 7 points, 3 assists and no turnovers, but
converted on only 2 of 7 shots. The perimeter shooting was bad (15 percent
rate), but overall shooting (thanks to Jayne Appel's effectiveness) was at a 44
percent mark - much improved on the UCLA game.
A few thoughts about Candice Wiggins. Despite an off
shooting game, her leadership was inspirational to this team. In the post-game
press conference, Candice appeared somewhat subdued (for CW that is). Her chin
was still bandaged from the UCLA game, but she reported feeling fine. After
Candice's superhuman effort against the Bruins, it is not surprising that her
timing was off a bit in this game. She still managed to make a buzzer-beating
three-pointer to tie the game at halftime, but that was her only three-point
conversion. The lesson here is that the team has to step up and provide more
support - Candice cannot do it alone.
So why did Stanford lose this game? Coach Mark Trakh said
after the game that the team with the last full possession was destined to win.
The Trojans could not stop Jayne Appel, and Stanford could not stop USC's
outside shooting. Stanford's abbreviated last possession (under ten seconds)
wasn't enough to pull the game out. Coach VanDerveer cited poor perimeter- and
free throw-shooting, and a few defensive lapses, as pivotal in the game.
In the post game comments, Coach Trakh (like Coach Olivier
two days earlier) was extremely complementary of Tara VanDerveer, whom he
described as running the benchmark program for everyone in the conference. Trakh
was emphatic in saying that this was his best win ever ("number one").
He also thought this win would give USC a strong chance to make the NCAA
tournament. USC players attending the press conference (Camille LeNoir, Nadia
Parker, and Allison Jaskowiak) were understandably ecstatic.
Are USC and UCLA for real? The answer is yes, with
qualifications. USC is not a true threat to win the conference. The team
rebounds poorly (Coach Trakh said that "everyone out rebounds us") and
relies too heavily on outside shooting. Perimeter shooting often suffers in road
games, so I expect USC will have a tough time winning away from home. Against
Stanford, USC made a superb effort and deserved the victory. If they can
maintain this intensity, they will surprise some other teams. As for UCLA, they
came close to upsetting California. The Bruins are a team with which to be
reckoned. They have balance in the inside and outside game. Drexia Morris, who
played so well against Stanford and also against Cal, was injured near the end
of the Cal game. Morris collided with a Cal defender on a drive to the basket
and injured her knee (the same knee with a previous ACL tear). UCLA's future
performance will likely depend on consistency (the Bruins' bugaboo) and Morris'
status.
What does all of this portend for the Cardinal? Stanford
must continue to be Stanford. The Wiggins and Appel response to these two hard
losses was just what one would expect of a Tara VanDerveer-coached team. When
asked about the future, Wiggins and Appel both affirmed that they will be back
in the gym this week, working to improve. Stanford is still the same team that
came down to Los Angeles with a #2 national ranking. Perimeter-shooting and free
throw-shooting were issues before this weekend, and they obviously still are.
Stanford is a humbled but still very good team. At this point, rankings should
not be the issue for the coach or the team. The focus should be on improving and
winning the Pac-10, a much more difficult task now that California has swept the
Southern California series.
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