Rebounding from Mediocre Shooting
The Stanford women's basketball team has won it's first three official games. The last
two have been nail biters, won with heart and perhaps a bit of luck. The story
of the season so far has been all about rebounding and shooting, one an
astounding success, the other flawed and in need of improvement.
Let's start with the rebounding. Stanford has been a powerhouse on the
boards, out rebounding its three opponents by substantial margins. The closest
of these margins was against Utah, but Stanford still pulled down 10 more boards
than the Utes (57-47). Even in its exhibition against the U.S. national team,
Stanford won the battle of the boards (36-32). There is no secret to the
Cardinal's success. Jayne Appel, the team's most effective rebounder last season
(averaging 39 boards for every 100 minutes played), is continuing at precisely
that pace (39 boards per 100 minutes played). To put this in perspective,
California's all-Pac 10 post players, Devanei Hamption and Ashley Walker,
averaged respectively 28 and 26 boards per 100 minutes during last season. By
avoiding the whistle and staying in the game, Appel provides Stanford a
formidable presence on both the defensive and offensive glass. Can there be
anyone better anywhere in college hoops?
Well, ahh - yes, surprisingly, at this point in the season, there is. After
three games, a freshman by the name of Kayla Pedersen is actually slightly ahead
of Appel's pace. Pedersen has pulled down 40 boards in 99 minutes of play, for
an average of slightly above her teammate's. Pedersen lacks Appel's singular
strength, but is smooth and has a nose for the ball that allows her to grab many
a misfired shot. Stanford may well end the season with two of the most effective
rebounders in the country. The team has excelled on both the defensive and
offensive glass, with 60 of the team's total 162 boards coming on the offensive
end.
There is, however a darker side to the team's astonishing effectiveness on
the offensive boards. Against the USA Basketball team, Stanford had a decided
10-5 advantage in offensive rebounds, but lost the game by 35 points. A
hot-shooting USA team converted with 59 per cent accuracy, while Stanford scored
on just 40% of its shots. To put it bluntly, a team with a high shooting
percentage has few opportunities to clear the offensive glass - it doesn't need
them.
A more accurate measure of a team's offensive board performance might be the
number of offensive boards as a ratio of the total number of missed shots. When
this measure is used, the difference between Stanford and its opponent is
reduced, but not eliminated. Stanford still proves to be formidable on the
offensive glass, even against the U.S. national team. The largest advantages for
Stanford occurred in the Yale and Rutgers games.
Offensive Boards Per Missed Shot
Yale Rutgers
USA Utah
Stanford
.607
.513 .294 .442
Opponent
.346
.286 .285 .333
Stanford Advantage
.261
.227 .009 .109
Stanford has one very high-percentage shooter, and that is Jayne Appel, the reigning Pac-10 Conference Player of the Week.
She has converted 32 of 52 attempts, for a 62% clip. The rest of the team looks
pretty plain by comparison - 55 shots out of 154 attempted, or just under 36%.
Not good. The Utah game was particularly dismal for Stanford shooters. While
Appel converted 56% of her shots, the rest of the team shot only 26%.
Unacceptable. Offensive rebounds saved Stanford against both Rutgers (20
offensive boards) and Utah (23 offensive boards), and allowed the team to carry
off a narrow victory when the perimeter shots weren't falling. In short,
offensive rebounds can be a safety net for the team, but a final four berth
seems unlikely unless the team can convert a much higher percentage of
shots.
Preseason hopes for improved three-point shooting have yet to materialize. In
three games, the Cardinal's three point shots have been falling at just a 25%
clip. For the Utah game, only four of 24 three point attempts fell - that's a
miserable 16.7%. Will Stanford's shooters rebound? I say yes. When the game was
on the line in Salt Lake City, the Stanford perimeter players made shots at a
higher percentage to pull away in the second overtime. And Melanie Murphy made
an absolutely critical three-point shot in the last second of regulation to put
the game into overtime. Her first three-pointer ever as a Stanford player, but
surely not her last.
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