USC Trojans
First Down: Quick Hitters
Stanford @ USC – October 6
Last Meeting: USC 42, Stanford 0
Side-by-Side Stats: (USC/Stanford)
Returning Offensive Starters: 6/8
2006 Points Per Game: 30.5/10.6
2006 Rushing Yards Per Game: 128/65
2006 Yards Per Carry: 4.0/2.1
2006 Passing Yards Per Game: 264/167
2006 Pass Completion Rate: 61.1/52.8
Returning Defensive Starters: 10/8
2006 Points Allowed Per Game: 15.2/31.4
2006 Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 91/211
2006 Yards Per Carry Allowed: 3.0/4.9
2006 Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 205/177
2006 Pass Completion Percentage Allowed: 54.6/60.3
2006 Record: 11-2/1-11
2007 Projected Record: (12-0, 9-0)/(3-9, 2-7)
2007 Projected Pac-10 Finish: 1st/T-9th
Second Down: Offense
Will the offense be top-notch (like last year) or NFL-caliber (like two years
ago, in Leinart and Bush's final season)? The safe bet is probably in the
middle - though this offense lacks the experience of the 2005, this still is
USC. The talent is there.
Talk about being in the right place at the right time. John David Booty is a
darn good quarterback, granted (First-Team All Pac-10, top-ranked high school
quarterback in his class). Still, like any quarterback, Booty is largely a
figurehead who will receive credit for the successes of the other 21 starters. As such, he is the preseason Heisman favorite, hardly a bold prediction as USC
should be #1 preseason and has won three of the last five Heismans (Palmer,
Bush, Leinart).
But you knew all of that. You are likely familiar too with the Chauncey Washington/C.J. Gable/Emmanuel Moody lineup at running back. Usually if you have
two tailbacks you have none - so the adage goes. Here, though, the trio combined for
1,700 yards last season and might well be pushed by some of the awesome
incoming recruits.
You may not fully realize how good the O-line is. Senior Sam Baker should
earn his third straight All-American honors, and he plays the most important
position on the line, left tackle. Right guard Chilo Rachal was Second-Team
All-Conference last year, and is popping up on everyone's First Team lists this
preseason. Right tackle Drew Radovich, a senior, is the other returning starter.
That leaves the receivers, who are the Achilles heel of the offense until
proven otherwise. Sophomore Vidal Hazelton and junior Patrick Turner have all
the measurables, but whether they can match the lofty bar Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett set remains to be seen. Same idea with Booty and the passing game in
general. The offensive talent is there, but USC needs to play like the old USC
to run the table against the most difficult schedule in the nation (Nebraska,
Notre Dame, Oregon, California and Arizona State all on the road).
Third Down: Defense
There are no such questions with the defense, which should be the best in the
country.
10 starters return. All but two (corner Cary Harris and linebacker Brian Cushing, last seen two steps too slow on Vince Young's 4th-and-national-title
bootleg) have earned All-Conference or All-American honors as Trojans. Cushing,
sophomore free safety Taylor Mays, junior linebacker Rey Maualuga, senior
linebacker Keith Rivers and senior defensive linemen Lawrence Jackson and
Sedrick Ellis were all top-10 recruits at their positions out of high school. All have lived up to the hype
- they are the stars of the stars on the USC
defense.
I can think of two relative weaknesses. One is the pass coverage of Harris,
or whoever holds down the corner spot opposite solid senior Terrell Thomas. Still, Harris is better than 95 percent of teams' second corners. The other
would be on the line, where Kyle Moore figures to be the defense's sole new
starter at end. Then again, with top-ranked recruit Everson Griffen and junior
college transfer Gerald Washington, Pete Carroll has a plethora of options
should Moore not live up to his hype.
The stats will not fully reflect it, because of their strength of schedule
and the nice, point-conducive weather of L.A. and the Pac-10 generally, but this
unit has the talent to go down as the greatest in modern college football. (I
would put Miami's 2001 defense, Ohio State's 2002 defense and USC's 2004 unit
1-2-3 in that order.) All 11 starters clearly have the talent to start on
Sundays. Even at a top-10 powerhouse like my hometown Michigan, that number is
closer to five or six. USC is simply lapping the field.
Fourth Down: Extra Points
USC is the clear preseason number one. As I write this, tradesports.com shows
them at 22 percent to win it all. I think that is too low and should be in the
30 to 35 percent range.
As I alluded to earlier, though, my major concern is the schedule. They face
five of their toughest six on the road (UCLA being the home finale). I'm sure
the Trojans would gladly trade to get those games at home in lieu of their
current home slate (Idaho, Washington State, Stanford, Arizona, Oregon State and
UCLA).
Of course, with a rotating Pac-10 schedule, the Trojans will get to do pretty
much that next year. And with just 10 starting seniors (only two in the back
seven), USC is looking golden for 2008. That is another benefit (along with the
enhanced recruiting ability) of Carroll's philosophy of playing the best
players, regardless of age.
Under Carroll, the Trojans are 34-2 at home, but just 31-10 away from the
Colisieum. The Trojans are 30-0 at home over the last five years. Stanford was
the last team to win at USC, in 2001.
Schedule is my one concern; the other is intensity. The majority of these
guys have already proven themselves and are looking at millions of dollars in a
matter of years, if not months. Where is the incentive to give 100 percent every
practice? USC seemed to toy with teams last year too - in consecutive
weeks beating Washington
State, Washington and Arizona State by less than they should have, until it finally caught up to them in their next game against Oregon
State. They should have enough intensity against Stanford, though, after Jim Harbaugh's speculation on Pete Carroll's coaching tenure.
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