Note on predictions: The "Vegas" prediction is constructed by combining the
over/under and the point spread currently listed by Las Vegas sports books. My
predictions went 24-15 straight up and against the spread over the regular
season. (Worry not, the regression to the mean starts now.)
(All times are Pacific)
Car Care Bowl (Charlotte, N.C.) Dec. 30 10 AM ESPN
So many teams of interest to Stanford play in a bowl (2007 foe TCU and all
the 2006 opponents but Arizona and the Washingtons), I could not fit them all in
one piece. If for no other reason than this one, make the schedule easier! I
think preparing for Navy is too tall a task for a Boston College team that hoped
for far better than the Car Care Bowl. They play lackadaisically, and the
Midshipmen hang in long enough to wear them down with the option late. This
looks to be one of the bowl season's closest games.
Vegas: Boston College 27, Navy 21
Daniel: Navy 27, Boston College 24 (OT)
Alamo Bowl (San Antonio) Dec. 30 1:30 PM ESPN
Last year's rendition came within one Tyler Ecker lateral to Steve Breaston
of replacing the Big Game as the craziest ending in college football history. Plus, it would have had the added bonus of actually being a legal play. (No, not
bitter at all, thanks for asking.) This year, however, should be a much more
lopsided affair. Texas, probably the best team in the Big 12, is the best team
in this game in years, while 6-6 Iowa the worst. (See what happens when
Bob Bowlsby
leaves?) I think the Hawkeyes are blown off both lines of scrimmage, as the Horns
have incredibly strong lines and the Hawkeyes are a tad undersized. Look out,
this one could get ugly.
Vegas: Texas 32, Iowa 22
Daniel: Texas 41, Iowa 20
Chick-fil-A Bowl (Atlanta) Dec. 30 5 PM ESPN
Virginia Tech picked a really bad season to have an off-year. With the weak
state of the ACC, a squad no better than what they've fielded over the past five
years would probably be undefeated and preparing for Ohio State. But the Hokies
got out of the gates slowly, and their dream season was over before it began.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia's offense never did appear to get out
of the gates. And against a stingy Hokie defense, that could spell trouble. One
of Georgia's nine punts on the day gets blocked and returned for a touchdown,
and that will be all the offense the Hokies will need.
Vegas: Virginia Tech 24, Georgia 21
Daniel: Virginia Tech 24, Georgia 6
MPC Computers Bowl (Boise, Idaho) Dec. 31 4:30 PM ESPN
Talk about a lame duck, right? Miami is a team without a coach traveling
across the country to play in some game they have never heard of. The talent is
there for the U to win by 20 if they try, but Nevada is good enough to win by 30
if the ‘Canes come out flat. Vegas splits the difference, but I think we have an
upset in the making here. Miami's low-water mark is about to go lower yet. Good
luck recruiting.
Vegas: Miami 23, Nevada 20
Daniel: Nevada 27, Miami 17
Outback Bowl (Tampa, Fla.) Jan. 1 8 AM ESPN
Neither Joe Paterno nor whichever unfortunate soul takes the snaps under
center for Penn State have had much luck staying on their feet this season. Look
for the trend to continue against a Tennessee team that has its holes but still
sports a dominant defensive front. Defensive lines win games more often than any
other unit.
Vegas: Tennessee 23, Penn State 19
Daniel: Tennessee 27, Penn State 21
Cotton Bowl (Dallas, Tex.) Jan. 1 8:30 AM FOX
A weak, weak, weak Big-12 North representative (champion would be too strong
a word) is going to get killed by a stingy Auburn defense (see the LSU game or
the Florida game). The crowd may be largely pro-Auburn, too – they do not like
Nebraska too much in Texas. Nebraska seems (perpetually?) one or two years away
from that monster season.
Vegas: Auburn 24, Nebraska 21
Daniel: Auburn 23, Nebraska 9
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, Fla.) Jan. 1 10 AM CBS
Both teams lost their conference titles in heartbreaking fashion, and you
have to wonder how motivated either squad will be for the also-ran bowl. When
West Virginia has the ball, you will be watching two top-10 units and will be
excused for thinking the Rose Bowl or national title game moved to Jacksonville. The other side of the ball is going to be plain ugly, though. West Virginia's
defense is putrid, but when all else fails, do not bet against Reggie Ball
shooting his team in the foot with three interceptions and a fumble (see: Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Georgia for four straight years, about every other big game
of his career). Late-breaking news: Ball is academically ineligible for
the game. Helps or hurts the Jackets?
Vegas: West Virginia 28, Georgia Tech 20
Daniel: West Virginia 27, Georgia Tech 16
Capital One Bowl (Orlando, Fla.) Jan. 1 10 AM ABC
Meet Wisconsin, the weakest 11-1 team in the country. They were beaten badly by
Michigan, ducked Ohio State on the schedule, and got by the rest of a schedule
lacking in Top-25 opponents. They have P.J. Hill, a fat running back that brings
back Ron Dayne memories, but their defensive front is questionable, as is their
passing game.
Meet Arkansas, the nation's most one-dimensional team. Darren McFadden is the
nation's best tailback (this from a Michigan fan) and quite possibly nation's
best player not named Troy Smith. Arkansas cannot pass out of a paper bag, but
they will not have to. If Michigan could run through Wisconsin, so too can the
Hogs.
Vegas: Arkansas 23, Wisconsin 22
Daniel: Arkansas 27, Wisconsin 13
Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, Ariz.) Jan. 1 5:30 PM FOX
Left for dead after the Texas loss, Oklahoma has quietly backed its way into
the BCS. No Adrian Peterson, no problem for the Sooners, who started off this
season the same way they ended last year's – slowly – but have started to find
their powerhouse form of old in recent games. Boise State, meanwhile, is just
happy to be on the big stage. But unlike Utah, the only other mid-major to
make the BCS, the Broncos' debut is going to be ugly. Bob Stoops pulls out the
bag of tricks – fake punts, quarterback throwbacks, you name it – and runs this
one up.
Vegas: Oklahoma 30, Boise State 22
Daniel: Oklahoma 54, Boise State 13
Orange Bowl (Miami) Jan. 2 5 PM FOX
Louisville can score a mile-a-minute against the dregs of the Big East. Wake
Forest's defense has locked down the entire ACC. Both are dubious distinctions
akin to being named the beauty queen… of the state penitentiary. (Or some
certain Stanford sororities, but judge for yourselves.)
Wake Forest, more than any other team, has given me fits in this season's
prognostication. But come on, raise your hand if you foresaw Wake Forest 30,
Florida State 0. (Personally, I thought someone laced my orange juice when I saw
that score.) So I realize I am playing with fire picking against the Deacons,
but this broken watch will be right sooner or later, right?
Vegas: Louisville 34, Wake Forest 24
Daniel: Louisville 27, Wake Forest 13
International Bowl (Toronto) Jan. 6 9 AM ESPN2
I strongly disagree with the scheduling of these two nothing games between
the BCS bowls. The NFL's going on, we will have just concluded four BCS games
and be on the verge of the national title game – who is going to get up this
early to watch a game in Canada?
South Florida might be jealous because I also gave them this distinction in
this series, but Cincinnati is another one of the best teams you have never
heard of. (Between calling their upset of Rutgers and putting Arkansas in my
preseason Top 25, I can now die a happy man.)
By the way, I hate giving the Bearcats credit because a receiver on
Cincinnati's roster went to my high school. We were in 10th grade speech
together and both had a crush on the same girl. (For her but... bod… err...
personality, I swear.) He always teased me pretty hard in front of her, and
though I knew better to take the bait from a 6-foot-5 man who benches 250 and
actually got the girl [first for everything, right], the grudge lives on. True
story.
Western Michigan (or Waste-ern, as any true Michigander calls it) represents
well in baseball (Derek Jeter is from Kalamazoo, as is Western) and basketball,
but football is another matter all together. My former classmate does better
against the Broncos' defense than he did with that blonde, and the Bearcats
roll.
Vegas: Cincinnati 25, Western Michigan 17
Daniel: Cincinnati 34, Western Michigan 20
GMAC Bowl (Mobile, Ala.) Jan. 7 5 PM ESPN
Ohio and Frank Solich peaked in the right year in a down MAC, and I am
strangely suspicious of their gaudy second-place finish. Imagine them against
the powerhouse Northern Illinois or Miami Ohio teams of years past – I see them
getting killed by 30.
Southern Miss is kind of the GM vehicle, appropriately enough, of football
programs. It is never going to be flashy (no offense), but at the end of the
day, it gets the job done (great defense, a knack for winning the tight games). Southern Miss should have more fans at this game, too, and I think they pull out
a close one in the fourth quarter.
Vegas: Southern Miss 24, Ohio 17
Daniel: Southern Miss 23, Ohio 20
BCS National Title (Glendale, Ariz.) Jan. 8 5 PM FOX
I am not going to write too much you have not seen before, so I will keep it
brief.
The most underrated aspect of Ohio State's offense are their receivers not
named Ted Ginn – those guys start at 100 Division I-A schools – and their
pass-blocking. Top receiver Anthony Gonzalez, in particular, made Michigan's top
corner and future first-rounder Leon Hall his rag doll; no corner on Florida
will be able to stop him. The scary thing is that I think the number three through
five receivers might be just as good. Ohio State has demonstrated the skill
possession depth that we all fear USC is acquiring with those monster recruiting
classes.
How will this come into play? Well, Michigan defensive linemen LaMarr Woodley
and Alan Branch are both projected top-10 picks in the NFL Draft, and Troy Smith
had all day to throw. No exaggeration. Suffice it to say, there is no way
Florida pressures the quarterback without blitzing heavily. Except Florida
cannot blitz heavily because Ohio State will go to three- or four- or
five-receiver sets, and the Gators need to play those guys honestly. Michigan
tried selling out against the run and blitzing the safety (a scary thought
considering Florida's Reggie Nelson is light years better than anyone the
Buckeyes have seen to date), but the Buckeyes simply shredded the nation's
top-ranked rush defense for almost 200 yards. The Gators will not be able to
prevent this offense from operating at will.
Florida's offense, meanwhile, has been shaky all season, and Ohio State's
defense, while young, is immensely talented and quick enough not to give up the
big play. I think Florida scores enough that the over is a pretty safe bet – but
so too are the Buckeyes.
Vegas: Ohio State 27, Florida 20
Daniel: Ohio State 38, Florida 21
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