I was able to watch the second half of the game between Air Force and Long
Beach State. Here are some brief thoughts on the Falcons, how Stanford
matches up with them and what to expect tonight...
AIR FORCE OFFENSE vs. STANFORD DEFENSE
On offense, Air Force runs the “Princeton offense,” or at least some variety
of it. That means lots of screens and (back door) cuts and extensive use of the
high post. By far the most impressive players in my opinion are center Nick Welch and forward Jacob Burtschi. The former didn't put up big numbers (nine pts),
but he is a focal point of the offense even when he isn't taking a lot of shots. He's a good passer in the high post and can help out with ballhandling duties
against a press (not that Stanford is likely to press). Burtschi, who tallied 22
last night, is a high motor guy who does some of everything. You'll see both
guys all over the court on offense, including outside the arc and in the high
and low post.
Expect Welch and Burtschi to be the key players for Air Force on both ends
against Stanford. The Falcons run so much stuff through Welch on offense that
it's critical he be defended well. Robin Lopez will have a considerable size
advantage (four inches and maybe 20-30 pounds), and he's very good at defending
away from the basket for a seven-footer, but the way Welch is used all over the
court and his craftiness have me concerned about the possibility of foul trouble
for Lopez. That possibility is exacerbated by the likely temptation to challenge lay-up attempts off backdoor cuts. Backup Taj Finger probably does not have the
bulk and strength to deal with Welch effectively (notwithstanding his
performance against Leon Powe last year), so Lopez' avoidance of foul trouble
may be the single biggest key for Stanford tonight.
Burtschi will be a tough assignment as well, and some combination of Fred Washington, Lawrence Hill and Finger will have to step up to the task. Air
Force's perimeter players pose less of a challenge than do Welch and Burtschi,
and although they lack the ability to break down a defense off the dribble (not
that penetration plays much of a role in a Princeton offense), they clearly have
some guys capable of knocking down open threes. Dan Nwaelele went 3-of-7 from deep last night, and Burtschi added three treys of his own, although
it appears that all of the Falcons have a green light if open.
STANFORD OFFENSE vs. AIR FORCE DEFENSE
Air Force is likely to mix up its defenses, employing some zone and some
man-to-man. The Falcons do not have great quickness on the perimeter, and LBSU
managed a respectable number of open three-point attempts. Stanford's guards,
particularly Anthony Goods, could similarly get some good looks, although Goods
is likely to be a focal point of the Falcons' defense gameplan. Stanford will
have to be disciplined, as the Falcons do not gamble much or give up cheap
baskets, and this will be the first good test of Stanford's ability to execute
its halfcourt offense. Mitch Johnson's patience and aversion to forcing things
should be a big help in this regard.
LBSU's guards were able to beat their Air Force counterparts off the dribble
and get into the paint on occasion, and although Stanford does not have as many
penetrators, don't be surprised if Goods and, to a lesser extent, Washington and
Landry Fields try to dribble-penetrate a little more than usual.
Lopez should be able to get some good looks inside against the Air Force's
smallish frontcourt, although the Falcons may well opt to double the post
liberally or pack in their zone to limit the damage. Hill's improved drop-step
move, which was extremely effective against San Jose State, could also be an
effective weapon.
OUTLOOK
Don't expect a lot of surprises from Air Force tonight. On offense, the
Falcons will run their Princeton style system and rely on execution, and they
will play fundamentally sound defense, attempt to limit transition opportunities
and force Stanford to execute its halfcourt offense. This will be the first
tough matchup for a young Stanford team, and one could easily make a case for
the Falcons to be favored on a neutral court. On second thought, if Maples is
half-empty again, it really could resemble a neutral court. But seriously, this
one is close to a toss-up. The pick here is Stanford in a low-scoring
nail-biter, 65-64.
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