Southern California Trojans
First Down: Quick Hitters
USC @ Stanford – November 4
Last Meeting: USC 51, Stanford 21 ('05)
Side-by-Side Stats: (USC/Stanford)
Returning Offensive Starters: 4/10
2005 Yards Per Point: 11.8/12.9
2005 Rushing Yards Per Game: 260/92
2005 Yards Per Carry: 6.4/2.6
2005 Passing Yards Per Game: 320/224
2005 Pass Completion Rate: 64.9/61.4
Returning Defensive Starters: 6/6
2005 Yards Per Point Allowed: 15.8/14.4
2005 Rushing Yards Per Game Allowed: 131/156
2005 Yards Per Carry Allowed: 3.8/4.0
2005 Passing Yards Per Game Allowed: 230/286
2005 Pass Completion Percentage Allowed: 59.7/60.8
2005 Record: 12-1/5-6
Second Down: Offense
Their leading returning passer threw for just 327 yards, and their leading
returning rusher ran for just 137 yards last season. Gone are two backs that
combined to rush for nearly 3,100 yards and catch for another 700, and a
quarterback who threw for 3,815 yards. That is not all: two Top 10 draft picks,
11 NFL draftees in total (the most from one school since the draft shortened to
seven rounds in 1983) and 80 touchdowns left L.A. this spring as well.
Still, and this might be the understatement of the year, do not worry about
USC. They will be scary good as far as the eye can see. At
quarterback, John David Booty is the successor in line, and the #1 recruit of three years ago
looks primed to continue what Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart started. Talk about
big shoes to fill: if you fail to win a Heisman, do you leave L.A. a
disappointment?
The status of the stable of Trojan running backs (and backup quarterback Mark Sanchez) is something to keep an eye on. Pete Carroll says running back is his
biggest concern on the roster, and if Chauncey Washington cannot play (academic
issues have dogged the junior his entire stay in L.A.), there is not a load of
proven talent behind senior Brandon Hancock, who may be a better fit at fullback
anyway. It is unlikely it will work out this way, but how unreal would it be if
on a team as loaded as USC, the starting tailback spot fell to a walk-on, junior
Josh Griffin. Injuries, academics and personal issues would have to take down a
few folks ahead of Griffin, but crazier things have happened. At any rate, this
unit will be several steps down from the Lendale White - Reggie Bush backfield
that was, arguably, the best in college football history.
At receiver, Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett form the best one-two punch in
the country, and Chris McFoy and Patrick Turner add nice depth. Replacing tight
end Dominique Byrd, a third-round draft pick, presents a challenge.
While receiver is the only "sure thing" on offense, perhaps the biggest
question mark comes on the line. Gone are left guard Taitusi Lutui, right tackle
Winston Justice and right guard Fred Matua, all starters who now find themselves
in the NFL. Senior center Ryan Kalil and junior left tackle Sam Baker are
returning All-Americans, but those other three spots – right tackle, right guard
and left guard – appear to be chinks in the armor, at least until they get more
experience.
Third Down: Defense
Now it gets interesting.
The linebackers are the strength of the defense, returning nearly everyone. Oscar Lua, Keith Rivers and Brian Cushing, despite their undressing courtesy
Vince Young, are all top-notch, so expect another year of all-conference
performance out of the unit.
On the line and especially in the secondary, though, it becomes dicier.
At line, Frostee Rucker (the most underrated man on last year's team, in my
opinion) departs at end alongside tackle LaJuan Ramsey, both to the NFL. Given
those losses and that the unit allowed nearly four yards per carry last year,
stalwarts Sedrick Ellis and Lawrence Jackson can try as they might, but the
rushing defense will not be elite.
And USC might have to be careful packing the box with the departure of an
entire starting secondary – Darnell Bing, Scott Ware, John Walker and Justin Wyatt. Still, the tendency with a team as dominant as USC is to focus on all the
talent leaving without fully appreciating what remains, and I do not want to
fall into that trap. The secondary is a microcosm for the entire team, then: an
unreal collection of talent, size and speed lacking in experience. So suffice it
to say the unit will be good, but whether it can be among the best in the
country simply remains to be seen. Then again, even if this year is a bit down
(like, say, 10-2 and just a split of the Pac-10 title), sophomores Cary Harris
and Kevin Thomas, both starters out of spring ball, should grow into lockdown
corner roles for years to come. As long as that recruiting pipeline remains
golden, USC will fight on for quite some time.
Fourth Down: Extra Points
- Special teams take a big knock with the departure of punter Tom Malone and
wunderkind returner Reggie Bush. Still, Mario Danelo and his 11-of-12 field goal
accuracy last season is not a bad place to start reloading.
- Think USC might be looking past Stanford a little bit? After the visit to
Palo Alto, comes Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame and at UCLA for the Trojans.
- Speaking of which, I commend USC for scheduling what the number crunchers
are calling the toughest schedule in the country, but it is set to play out
mighty well for the Trojans. USC will face each of its six most highly-touted
opponents this season in L.A.: Nebraska, Arizona State, Oregon, Cal and Notre
Dame visit, and the Trojans have just a few-mile trip to Westwood for their
season finale. Given that sites usually switch annually, that makes USC's run
last year all the more impressive, with victories at Oregon, Notre Dame and Cal. For surviving that, the Trojans are rewarded in 2006 with a schedule tailor-made
for a third-straight undefeated regular season.
- That the toughest opponents come to L.A. Coliseum is all the more important
for a team that has not lost at home since the 6-5 season of 2001, Pete Carroll's first. Stanford pulled off the 21-16 victory in just the fourth game
of the season for the Trojans. Since then, USC has reeled off 27 straight home
victories.
- Not only do the locations work out well for USC, but so too does the
timing. The four strongest teams on the schedule (Notre Dame, Cal, Oregon, UCLA)
are the Trojans' last four games of the season. That gives Pete Carroll,
who seems to perform better the more time he has to prepare, months to gameplan
and break in all the new talent. Watch out.
2006 Regular Season Prediction:
12-0, 9-0 Pac-10 Champs... only to get crushed by Oklahoma in the national
title game. You read it here first.
Are you fully subscribed to The Bootleg?
If not, then you are missing out on all the top Cardinal coverage we provide
daily on our website, as well as our full-length feature articles in our glossy
magazine. Sign up today for the biggest and best in Stanford sports coverage
with TheBootleg.com (sign-up)
and The Bootleg Magazine (sign-up)!