Pac-10 Standings
(records through games of Sun. 5/21)
Conf.
GB Overall
Oregon State 15-6
- 38-13
UCLA
12-9 3.0 30-22
Arizona State 11-10
4.0 33-19
USC
11-10 4.0 25-29
Stanford
11-13 5.5 29-23
Washington State 9-12
6.0 34-21
Washington
9-12 6.0 34-24
California
9-12 6.0 25-25
Arizona
9-12 6.0 24-28
** NCAA Tournament Analysis **
In -
* Oregon State - The Beavers clinched at least a share of the
Pac-10 championship with a convincing sweep of Washington State last
weekend in Pullman. Oregon State will almost assuredly host a
regional as a #1 seed. Their current RPI rating of 29 though
makes it seem unlikely that they'll be named as one of the eight
national seeds (and thus be able to host a super regional if they were
to advance). The Beavers need just one win over visiting UCLA
this weekend to claim the outright conference title.
* UCLA - The Bruins are still in the hunt for the Pac-10 title after a
two-of-three series win versus Stanford last weekend. UCLA though
will need a sweep of the Beavers in Corvallis to earn a share of the
championship. The Bruins have the looks of a solid #2 seed in
next month's NCAA Tournament.
* Arizona State - The Sun Devils have now dropped three of their last
four series' when they managed just one win at Arizona last
weekend. After an easy 15-6 victory in the opener, ASU fell by
the scores of 18-12 and 5-4 to lose the three-game set. Still,
the Sun Devils' RPI is at a solid #31 and a hosting possibility
remains. The lack of possible host schools on the west coast this
year means Arizona State has an excellent chance to playing in Tempe
the first week of June (as a #2 seed). The Sun Devils will look
to make a run at a second place finish in the conference this weekend
when they welcome California to town for three games.
On The Bubble -
* Stanford - The Cardinal have had an outstanding final month of
the regular season thus far despite a series loss at UCLA last
weekend. More on their NCAA Tournament chances below.
* Washington - The Huskies split a rain-shortened two-game series at
Pacific last weekend. Losing three straight to Stanford two weeks
ago is what very well could keep Washington out of the NCAA's as their
RPI currently sits at a less-than-impressive 73. The Huskies need
two wins at home versus Washington State this weekend to garner any
sort of postseason mention. It could very well take a sweep of
their rivals (which would get their final Pac-10 record to 12-12)
though to actually have a good shot at an at-large bid.
Long Shot -
* California - The Golden Bears had last weekend off and will
need to win all four of their games this week for a slim possibility at
the NCAA Tournament. Cal travels to Stockton for a Tuesday game
with Pacific before a difficult series at Arizona State this
weekend. A sweep of the Sun Devils would get the Bears up to an
even 12-12 which would be enough to also pass Stanford (and very
possibly Washington). Still, their overall record would sit at
just 29-25 and a significant bump in their RPI (from their current mark
of 86) would be required. A miracle finish is needed for
California, to say the least.
Out -
* USC - The Trojans, despite a solid 11-10 conference record,
were officially eliminated from NCAA Tournament contention on Sunday
after getting swept at Wichita State. The May swoon for USC has
dropped their overall record to 25-29 with just four games remaining
(vs. CS Fullerton, vs. Arizona - 3) on their schedule. The
Trojans now have no chance of finishing with an above .500 overall
record which is required to qualify for the NCAA's. Plus, Sunday
saw USC officially eliminated from the Pac-10 race as they trail Oregon
State by four games for the automatic bid.
* Washington State - The Cougars had a difficult weekend versus the
Beavers as they were swept by the combined score of 39-6. It's
been a great turnaround season for WSU, but even a sweep of host
Washington this week (to get their final conference record to 12-12)
won't be enough to make up for an RPI rating that's not even in the top
100 nationally.
* Arizona - As expected, it was a rebuilding year down in Tucson for
the young Wildcats. Losing their top two pitchers (Berger and
Melancon) for most of the conference season also didn't help
matters. Still, Arizona managed a series win over their in-state
rival ASU last weekend. The Wildcats can get to 12-12 in
conference play with a sweep of reeling USC this weekend, but that
would still leave Arizona short of the .500 mark when it comes to their
overall record.
This Weekend
* Arizona at USC
* California at Arizona State
* UCLA at Oregon State
* Washington State at Washington
UC Davis at/vs. Stanford (Friday-Saturday)
Pac-10 RPI Update
(rankings from Boydsworld through Sunday, May 21st)
25. UCLA
29. Oregon State
31. Arizona State
40. Stanford
47. USC
73. Washington
78. Arizona
86. California
116. Washington State
Baseball
America Rankings
-- Pac-10 --
5. Oregon State (38-13)
19. Arizona State (33-19)
-- West Coast --
2. CS Fullerton (39-13)
5. Oregon State (38-13)
19. Arizona State (33-19)
20. Pepperdine (38-18)
21. Fresno State (39-16)
23. San Francisco (37-19)
24. Hawaii (40-13)
-- Top Ten --
1. Rice (46-10)
2. CS Fullerton (39-13)
3. Clemson (43-13)
4. North Carolina (45-11)
5. Oregon State (38-13)
6. Texas (38-18)
7. Virginia (45-11)
8. Alabama (39-17)
9. Georgia (38-17)
10. Kentucky (42-13)
Stanford/UCLA Series Review
The Cardinal managed just one win in Los Angeles last weekend
against the host Bruins. After three consecutive complete games,
Greg Reynolds was tagged for seven runs (six earned) on ten hits in six
innings Friday night. UCLA jumped out to an early 6-0 lead after
three innings and cruised to an 8-1 victory.
Hector Ambriz was magnificent on the mound for the Bruins yielding just
one run and seven hits over eight innings. The junior
right-hander struck out eight batters compared to no walks.
Stanford's lone chance at a big inning came in the top of the sixth
when they scored a single run to cut the deficit down to 7-1. But
with runners on the corners and none out, Ambriz was able to bear down
inducing Michael Taylor to pop out before back-to-back strikeouts of
Randy Molina and Chris Lewis to keep the UCLA lead at six runs.
Chris Minaker (3-for-4) and Grant Escue (2-for-4) recorded five of
Stanford's seven hits.
Saturday was a completely different story for the Cardinal as Nolan Gallagher tossed a complete-game en route to a 6-2 Stanford
victory. Gallagher, who was making just his third start of the
season, surrendered just one earned run on seven hits. The
sophomore right-hander walked only one and struck out seven during his
125-pitch effort on the mound. Gallagher (4-3, 2.52 ERA, .241
opponents average) seems to have settled into the Saturday spot in the
starting rotation after a dominant month of May giving the Cardinal a
formidable 1-2 punch in their rotation (Reynolds: 6-4, 3.51 ERA, 102
2/3 IP, .255 opponents average).
Offensively, Stanford used the longball to account for four of their
six runs. Minaker got the scoring started with a two-run blast
off of UCLA lefty Dave Huff in the top of the fourth. It was
Minaker's team-leading 11th round-tripper of the season. Solo
homers from Taylor (5th inning) and Lewis (8th inning) extended the
Cardinal lead. Stanford finished with 11 hits with Lewis
(2-for-4, HR, RBI) and John Hester (2-for-4, SB) leading the way.
Sunday was certainly one of the toughest losses of the season as UCLA's
Tim Stewart smacked a walkoff, solo home run in the bottom of the ninth
inning for an 8-7 Bruin victory. Taylor connected for a solo
homer in the top of the eighth inning for Stanford giving the Cardinal
a 7-6 lead. But Matt Manship, who excelled in relief over the
sixth and seventh innings (no runs allowed), allowed a solo blast to
Blair Dunlap to leadoff the bottom of the eighth which tied the
game. Then with two outs and nobody on in the bottom of the
ninth, Stewart took an 0-1 pitch from the senior and blasted it well
over the fence in straightaway left field for the game-winning hit.
The Cardinal were unable to hold an early 5-0 lead as Stanford plated
four runs in the top of the first inning before a single tally in the
fourth. Jeremy Bleich earned the start and dominated through four
innings with just one hit allowed and three strikeouts. But four
hits (with just one out recorded) surrendered in the bottom of the
fifth signaled the end of his outing. Erik Davis entered the
contest and promptly allowed a single and a Stewart three-run
homer. All of a sudden, the Bruins had turned a 5-0 deficit into
a 6-5 lead.
Stanford's power-surge at the plate continued as Lewis and Taylor both
homered for the second consecutive afternoon. Lewis finished with
three hits in four at-bats to raise his batting average to a
season-high .290. The senior second baseman is also second on the
club with seven homers. Meanwhile, Taylor has now clubbed three
homers in his last five games after just one longball in the first 47
games of the season. The rightfielder is second on the team with
a .316 average and third in RBI (33).
Other multi-hit games on Sunday came from Ryan Seawell (2-for-4, SB),
Jason Castro (2-for-4, 2B, RBI), and Escue (2-for-3). Castro
extended his hitting streak to ten games while Minaker has now hit
safely in nine straight contests. Stanford finished Sunday with
13 hits.
NCAA Tournament
Selection Day is just one week away so Stanford's chances at an
NCAA Tournament bid are certainly on the minds of Cardinal fans right
now. Stanford will have to settle for a sub-.500 conference
record as Sunday's heartbreaking defeat at Jackie Robinson Stadium ends
the Pac-10 portion of their schedule with an 11-13 mark.
Meanwhile, combined with the six earlier "non-conference" tilts versus
Cal and USC back in late-February/early-March, the Cardinal will bring
a 13-17 record in games versus Pac-10 teams into Selection Day.
The committee will look at both that record plus Stanford's finish
relative to other teams in the conference race. That second point
could be very important this upcoming weekend as the Cardinal try to
maintain their hold on fifth place. All eight other Pac-10 teams
are playing conference games this weekend, so the placement of every
club in the standings has hardly been decided. From Stanford's
perspective, they will be rooting against Washington State, Washington,
California, and Arizona to sweep this weekend. As long as none of
those four teams records a sweep this weekend, the Cardinal will at
least find themselves in a tie for fifth place on Sunday night.
A sub-.500 conference record is a significant knock against Stanford on
their resume, so it's going to take strong results in the other
criteria that the committee uses to earn an at-large bid. On the
line this weekend will be final standing in the Pac-10 race. A
fifth place finish will look much better than a seventh place finish in
the eyes of the committee.
Stanford, as of now, has a very strong non-conference resume.
Series wins over RPI top-ten clubs Cal State Fullerton (sweep) and
Texas will carry huge weight in the eyes of the committee. Plus,
the Cardinal also notched a road series win versus WAC champion and RPI
Top 40 Fresno State. They've also held their own in other
non-conference matchups avoiding any really bad losses.
However, much like their final placement in the Pac-10 race, the
non-conference portion of their resume is still not yet
completed. Stanford has three games remaining on their schedule:
Wednesday - at Pacific (2:00 P.M.)
Friday - vs. UC Davis (6:00 P.M.)
Saturday - at UC Davis (2:00 P.M.)
That means the Cardinal's RPI rating can still very much change before
Selection Day. As of now, it's a solid 40 and that figure almost
always is good enough for a bid into the NCAA Tournament (in 2005, 38
of the top 40 teams in the RPI received invitations to the postseason
... including #38 Stanford). Stanford though needs a strong
finish this week to maintain that solid computer ranking. Pacific
has an RPI rating of 87 while UC Davis is a dreadful 199 - the worst of
any Stanford opponent this year. The Aggies are one of only two
Cardinal opponents not in the Top 150 (Sacramento State).
Stanford probably won't see much of an improvement in their RPI rating
with three wins this week because of how poor a season UC Davis is
having, but one loss (especially to the Aggies) could see a significant
drop. A drop certainly not needed for a bubble team at this time
of the year.
Other factors the committee looks at are road record and how you finish
the season. A pair of wins on Wednesday and Saturday would give
Stanford an above-.500 record away from Sunken Diamond (14-12).
Meanwhile, three wins this week would classify the Cardinal as one of
the hottest teams in the country at the end of the regular season (13
wins in last 16 games under this scenario). The latter point is
especially noteworthy for a bubble team.
Bottom line, despite having already concluded their Pac-10 season, this
week is an incredibly important one for Stanford. With three
wins, the Cardinal can equal last year's final regular season record of
32-23 (when they were a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament). Stanford
will have to deal with a sub-.500 final Pac-10 mark. But still at
stake is holding onto a share of fifth place, notching an overall
strong finish to the regular season, and the all-important RPI rating.
Conference Races
(RPI rating in parenthesis)
ACC
Atlantic -
Clemson
24-6 - 43-13 (#1)
Florida State 16-13
7.5 39-17 (#15)
N.C. State
16-13 7.5 35-19 (#17)
Wake Forest 16-13
7.5 33-20 (#20)
Coastal -
North Carolina 22-8
- 45-11 (#9)
Virginia
21-9 1.0 45-11 (#12)
Georgia Tech 19-11
3.0 42-14 (#4)
Miami
17-13 5.0 35-19 (#14)
It looks as if the RPI-inflated
ACC will received eight bids to the NCAA Tournament this year.
N.C. State and Wake Forest, both slumping teams, could be in trouble
with a quick two-and-out at the ACC Tournament this week. Clemson
has won 15 in a row and has a shot at the #1 overall national
seed. North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia Tech should also
host. Florida State or Miami could also find themselves playing
at home the first week of June giving this conference five host
schools. Three national seeds may come from this
conference.
Conference Tournament begins on Wednesday.
Big
12
Texas
19-7 - 38-18 (#5)
Oklahoma State 18-9
1.5 39-15 (#13)
Nebraska
17-10 2.5 39-14 (#7)
Oklahoma
17-10 2.5 39-17 (#10)
Kansas
13-14 6.5 38-23 (#42)
Baylor
13-14 6.5 34-22 (#30)
Missouri
12-15 7.5 29-24 (#55)
Despite getting swept by Missouri last
weekend, Texas still had enough to finish atop the Big 12. The
Longhorns will again host and look good for a national seed.
Oklahoma State, Nebraska, and Oklahoma could give this conference four
host schools. Baylor should be the fifth team in the NCAA
Tournament from the Big 12 while Kansas and Missouri still have a shot.
Conference Tournament begins on Wednesday.
Conference
USA
Rice
22-2 - 46-10 (#2)
Houston
18-6 4.0 36-19 (#19)
Tulane
15-9 7.0 39-17 (#27)
Southern Miss 13-11
9.0 37-19 (#36)
Memphis
13-11 9.0 30-26 (#79)
East Carolina 10-14
12.0 32-24 (#57)
The Owls are ranked #1 in the country
according to Baseball America and
have a good chance at the top overall national seed. Houston and
Tulane are probably on the outside-looking-in right now in terms of
hosting possibilities. Southern Miss should give this conference
four bids into the tournament.
Conference Tournament begins on Wednesday.
SEC
West -
Alabama
20-10 - 42-13 (#3)
Arkansas
18-12 2.0 38-17 (#11)
Mississippi 17-13
3.0 36-20 (#22)
LSU
13-17 7.0 34-22 (#38)
Mississippi State 12-17 7.5 35-21
(#33)
East -
Kentucky
20-10 - 42-13 (#23)
Georgia
18-12 2.0 38-17 (#6)
Vanderbilt
16-14 4.0 33-23 (#43)
South Carolina 15-15
5.0 36-20 (#28)
The SEC is looking good for four hosts
this year. Kentucky and Alabama split the regular season title
and both are in the running for national seeds. Georgia is also
in the picture thanks to a strong RPI. Arkansas should be the
fourth team from this conference to host. Meanwhile, there's
still a chance that nine schools will receive invites to the NCAA
Tournament. LSU is in danger of not reaching the postseason
thanks to a sub-.500 conference record and a poor regular season
finish. Mississippi State was ranked #1 in the country back in
March, but lost seven of their final eight series'. Will the
Bulldogs receive an at-large bid even though they didn't even qualify
for the SEC Tournament (top eight teams)?
Conference Tournament begins on Wednesday.
Big
West
CS
Fullerton
15-3 - 39-13 (#8)
Long Beach State 12-6
3.0 29-24 (#44)
UC
Irvine
9-9 6.0 34-20 (#37)
UC Riverside
8-10 7.0 28-23 (#65)
Cal
Poly
8-10 7.0 27-26 (#85)
No conference tournament in the Big West,
so still one week of regular season play remaining. CS Fullerton
can probably lock up a national seed with a win in Long Beach this week
(thereby clinching the outright conference title). The Dirtbags
are right on the bubble and may need a series win over the
Titans. Irvine has a better RPI and an easier opponent this
weekend (UC Riverside). This conference definitely has a chance
for three bids.
WAC
Fresno State
18-6 - 39-16 (#35)
Hawaii
17-6 0.5 40-13 (#34)
San Jose State 12-12
6.0 33-24 (#89)
Fresno and Hawaii were the class of the
WAC this year and both are looking strong for bids to the NCAA
Tournament. If another team wins this conference tournament, then
it could be bad news for a bubble team somewhere.
Conference Tournament begins on Thursday.
WCC
Pepperdine
15-6 - 38-18 (#16)
San Francisco
15-6 - 37-19 (#51)
San Diego
13-8 2.0 32-23 (#54)
The Waves and Dons meet this weekend in
San Francisco in the best-of-three WCC Championship Series. The
winner receives the automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament.
Pepperdine is headed to the postseason regardless of this weekend's
outcome. The fates of San Francisco (if they don't win this
weekend) and San Diego are still very much up in the air.
|