The Bootleg's Graduation Rate Analysis

For the fourth straight year, we are honored to bring you an exhuastive analysis of the NCAA's most recent graduation rate data for Division IA student-athletes. The NCAA's data takes on extra meaning this year, as they are an important component in the new "Academic Performance Ratings" - about to be released. College athletics will change once schools with low APRs have scholarships taken away...

Click here for The Bootleg's 2004 analysis
Click here for The Bootleg's 2003 analysis
Click here for The Bootleg's 2002 analysis

The Bootleg is pleased to present its annual analysis of student-athlete graduation rates.

The NCAA publishes an annual report of graduation rates, but that report is limited to raw data, with no comparison or analysis. Taking the NCAA report as our starting place, we're bringing our readers the story behind the numbers.

We've reviewed all of the major conference schools' grad rates to compile lists of the top and bottom grad rates in each major sport. In addition, we've identified the schools that have the biggest "graduation rate gaps," that is, the biggest differences between their student-athlete graduation rates and their graduation rates for the overall student body. You won't find this analysis anywhere else. These are Bootleg exclusives.

As in previous years, we've focused on the Pac-10 schools, but we've also included some grad rates for other schools of interest to our readers. We've used the NCAA's most recent graduation rates report. The grad rates in The Bootleg's analysis are the combined graduation rates for the four most recent classes. Those classes would have graduated in the years 1999 through 2002, assuming a five year track to graduation.

So, here it is: The Bootleg's fourth annual graduation rate analysis.

FOOTBALL

Football Graduation Rates: Pac-10
Stanford	85%
Oregon	68%
Washington	63%
USC	58%
Washington State	57%
UCLA	55%
California	48%
Arizona State	44%
Oregon State	44%
Arizona	43%

Arizona has tumbled all the way down to last place in Pac-10 football graduation rates, dropping from 61% two years ago (4th in the conference) to 43% this year. Oregon State improved from 35% last year to 44%, barely climbing out of the cellar. After edging up to 50% last year, Cal dropped down below the half-and-half mark once again this year. We keep hearing from Cal fans that Cal's grad rates are on the verge of improvement, but it never seems to show up in the numbers.

Football Graduation Rates: Selected Others
Notre Dame	77%
Nebraska	63%
Michigan	57%
Miami	57%
Illinois	56%
Wisconsin	56%
Georgia	53%
Ohio State	52%
Alabama	49%
Florida St.	49%
Georgia Tech	49%
Florida	42%
LSU	42%
Oklahoma	40%
Tennessee	38%
Texas	34%

Texas, which had a 50% graduation rate just two years ago, has been rapidly sliding to the bottom, and now has one of the lowest graduation rates in Division IA. Ohio State and Georgia Tech, on the other hand, have pulled their grad rates up from the 33% range to the 50% neighborhood over the last two years.

Football Grad Rates for African American Players: Pac-10
	African American	Caucasian
Stanford	84%	89%
Washington	66%	67%
USC	52%	65%
Oregon	52%	79%
UCLA	47%	66%
Washington State	44%	70%
Cal	42%	59%
Oregon State	40%	50%
Arizona State	34%	59%
Arizona	34%	54%

What's wrong with this picture? Nine of the schools in the Pac-10 conference graduate more than 53% of their white football players, but only two of them graduate more than 53% of their African American players. All of the schools except Stanford, Washington, and maybe Oregon State have notable racial disparities in their football graduation rates.

Football Grad Rates for African American Players: Selected Others
	African American	Caucasian
Michigan	47%	70%
Florida State	43%	71%
Illinois	43%	76%
Georgia	40%	73%
Auburn	40%	74%
Iowa	38%	64%
LSU	35%	61%
Clemson	35%	77%
Colorado State	32%	63%
Tennessee	30%	67%
Colorado	29%	60%
Arkansas	21%	60%

These schools have some of the biggest racial gaps in their football grad rates. It's difficult to think of a reasonable explanation for these gaps.

Top 5 Football Grad Rates Division IA
Vanderbilt	88%
Rice	88%
Stanford	85%
Duke	85%
Northwestern	83%
Wake Forest	83%

There are no real surprises on the list of schools with the best graduation rates. Congratulations to Vandy and Rice for taking top honors. This year, Wake Forest has moved up into the top group.

Bottom 5 Football Grad Rates Division IA
BYU	19%
UNLV	25%
San Jose State	25%
Middle Tennessee State	30%
Pittsburgh	31%

BYU's football grad rate takes a hit from the number of players who take LDS missions. A player who takes a two-year mission after starting college and who also redshirts usually will not graduate within the six year window used for purposes of the graduation rate stats. BYU, UNLV, San Jose State, and Middle Tennessee State all appeared on this list last year.

Biggest Difference in Grad Rates Between Football Players and All Students (Difference of 20% or more) Division IA
	Football Players	All Students	Difference
BYU	19%	72%	-53%
Cal	48%	84%	-36%
Texas	34%	70%	-36%
Pittsburgh	31%	63%	-32%
Florida	42%	73%	-31%
UCLA	55%	83%	-28%
Michigan	57%	84%	-27%
North Carolina	53%	80%	-27%
Miami (Ohio)	53%	80%	-27%
Michigan State	41%	68%	-27%
Rutgers	49%	73%	-24%
Illinois	56%	79%	-23%
Texas A&M	50%	73%	-23%
Colorado	43%	66%	-23%
Kentucky	36%	58%	-22%
Tennessee	38%	58%	-20%
North Carolina State	42%	62%	-20%
Missouri	44%	64%	-20%
Clemson	51%	71%	-20%
Wisconsin	56%	76%	-20%

The graduation rate gap is one way of describing the difference between a school's overall student body and the student-athletes in its football program. Aside from BYU, which is affected by the number of players who take missions and redshirt, the schools with the biggest graduation rate gaps are Cal and Texas. Most of the regular students who enroll in those schools can expect to end up with a degree, but football players cannot share that same expectation.

BASKETBALL

Basketball Grad Rates: Pac-10
Stanford	92%
Washington State	50%
Washington	45%
Oregon	33%
UCLA	33%
Arizona	25%
USC	20%
Arizona State	17%
Oregon State	15%
Cal	0%

Cal has had low basketball graduation rates for years, but this year, Cal finally has hit bottom: not one of the scholarship basketball players who enrolled as freshmen at Cal over a four year period actually graduated from Cal.

Basketball Grad Rates: Selected Others
Santa Clara	77%
St. Joseph's	70%
North Carolina	67%
Michigan State	64%
Kansas	60%
Duke	58%
Iowa	55%
Syracuse	53%
Illinois	47%
Wake Forest	44%
Gonzaga	43%
Connecticut	27%
Maryland	25%
Georgia Tech	19%
Kentucky	8%

Basketball graduation rates are generally lower than football graduation rates. Notice that Duke, which often gets props for upholding academic standards, actually has a lower basketball grad rate than some other major programs, including Kansas, Michigan St., and North Carolina.

Top 5 Basketball Grad Rates Major Conference Schools
Stanford	92%
SMU	82%
Santa Clara	77%
Mississippi State	75%
Marquette	75%

We stretched the definition of "major conference schools" a little bit so that we could find five schools with graduation rates of 75% or better. We were expecting Stanford to top the list, of course, even though Stanford has fallen below the 100% level for the first time in years. But we were taken by surprise when we saw Mississippi State in the top five in basketball graduation rates. Who knew?

Bottom 5 Basketball Grad Rates Major Conference Schools
Cal	0%
LSU	0%
Minnesota	0%
San Jose State	0%
Kentucky	8%

Basketball grad rates in general are low, but these schools are the lowest. Four universities managed to bring in four consecutive recruiting classes without graduating a single one of those players. Accompanying Cal in the Hall of Shame are LSU, Minnesota, and San Jose State. Oddly, four of the Bay Area's basketball programs appear on either the "Top 5" list or the "Bottom 5" list – two on each list.

Biggest Difference in Grad Rates Between Basketball Players and All Students (Difference of 40% or more) Major Conference Schools
	Basketball Players	All Students	Difference
Cal	0%	84%	-84%
Michigan	27%	84%	-57%
USC	20%	76%	-56%
Texas A&M	17%	73%	-56%
LSU	0%	55%	-55%
Northwestern	38%	92%	-54%
Minnesota	0%	52%	-52%
UCLA	33%	83%	-50%
Kentucky	8%	58%	-50%
Georgia Tech	19%	68%	-49%
Boston College	38%	87%	-49%
Pitt	15%	63%	-48%
Rutgers	25%	73%	-48%
DePaul	14%	61%	-47%
Providence	38%	85%	-47%
Virginia	46%	92%	-46%
Georgetown	47%	93%	-46%
Colorado	21%	66%	-45%
Oregon St.	15%	59%	-44%
Oklahoma State	11%	54%	-43%
Texas	27%	70%	-43%
Wake Forest	44%	87%	-43%
Miami (Ohio)	38%	80%	-42%
St. Louis	27%	69%	-42%
Connecticut	27%	69%	-42%
Maryland	25%	67%	-42%
Notre Dame	53%	94%	-41%
Clemson	31%	71%	-40%

This list shows the schools with the largest "graduation rate gaps" between basketball players and regular students. Cal tops the list, with a staggering 84 percentage point difference between basketball players and the overall student body.

BASEBALL

Baseball Grad Rates: Pac-10
Stanford	79%
USC	54%
Washington State	50%
Cal	48%
UCLA	43%
Arizona State	39%
Washington	37%
Arizona	36%
Oregon State	25%
Oregon	no team

Stanford once again leads the Pac-10 in baseball grad rates, even though Stanford routinely loses its best players to the major league draft after three seasons.

Baseball Grad Rates: Selected Others
Santa Clara	75%
Tulane	60%
Rice	58%
San Jose State	54%
LSU	39%
Clemson	32%
South Carolina	32%
Florida State	31%
Georgia Tech	28%
Texas	24%
Miami	24%
Cal State Fullerton	24%
Georgia	22%
Long Beach State	16%

Texas, Miami, and Cal State Fullerton share more than success on the baseball field – they also share a 24% grad rate. Most of the major baseball powers have grad rates below 40%. Of course, the baseball draft causes a lot of players to leave early. But Stanford has managed a 79% grad rate despite losing a number of players early. Tulane and Rice also have managed to graduate more than half their players while having successful programs.

Top 5 Baseball Grad Rates Major Conference Schools
Duke	95%
Boston College	81%
Stanford	79%
Iowa	79%
Northwestern	78%

The top grad rates belong to four private schools, plus Iowa. Congrats to the Hawkeyes on achieving a fine graduation rate.

Bottom 5 Baseball Grad Rates Major Conference Schools
Fresno State	8%
Oklahoma State	11%
Long Beach State	16%
Nevada	18%
Alabama	20%

Believe it or not, Long Beach State's 16% grad rate actually represents an improvement. Fresno State has dropped down to replace the Dirtbags at the bottom of the graduation rate list.

Biggest Difference in Grad Rates Between Baseball Players and All Students (Difference of 30% or more) Major Conference Schools
	Baseball Players	All Students	Difference
Georgia	22%	69%	-47%
Texas	24%	70%	-46%
Oklahoma State	11%	54%	-43%
BYU	30%	72%	-42%
Miami	24%	65%	-41%
Alabama	20%	61%	-41%
Georgia Tech	28%	68%	-40%
UCLA	43%	83%	-40%
Clemson	32%	71%	-39%
Texas A&M	34%	73%	-39%
North Carolina State	24%	62%	-38%
North Carolina	43%	80%	-37%
Vanderbilt	47%	84%	-37%
Cal	48%	84%	-36%
Fresno State	8%	43%	-35%
Oregon State	25%	59%	-34%
Connecticut	35%	69%	-34%
Washington	37%	70%	-33%
Virginia	60%	92%	-32%
Rice	58%	90%	-32%
South Carolina	27%	58%	-31%
Florida State	31%	62%	-31%
Auburn	36%	67%	-31%
Tennessee	28%	58%	-30%
Nevada	18%	48%	-30%

Some of the largest baseball graduation rate gaps belong to major baseball powers – Texas, Miami, Georgia, Clemson, Georgia Tech.

ALL STUDENT-ATHLETES

Grad Rates for All Athletes: Pac-10
Stanford	87%
Washington	68%
Oregon	67%
Cal	66%
Washington State	62%
USC	62%
UCLA	61%
Arizona	56%
Arizona State	56%
Oregon State	52%

Stanford leads the Pac-10 in athlete grad rates by a considerable margin. Oregon State had the biggest improvement in the last year, moving up from 47% to 52%.

Grad Rates for All Athletes: Selected Others
Santa Clara	78%
Michigan	74%
Ohio State	63%
Florida State	60%
Nebraska	59%
Georgia	58%
Georgia Tech	58%
Texas	57%
Miami	57%
Alabama	56%
Florida	55%
LSU	55%
Oklahoma	53%
San Jose State	46%

The overall graduation rate for student-athletes at Division IA schools is 61%. Most of the schools with big, successful athletic programs have overall athlete grad rates in the 50% to 65% range. Most schools have higher graduation rates in non-revenue sports than in football and basketball.

Grad Rates for African American Athletes (All Sports): Pac-10
	African American	Caucasian
Stanford	84%	88%
Washington	63%	68%
USC	52%	66%
Washington State	51%	66%
UCLA	49%	67%
Arizona	48%	62%
Oregon	45%	74%
Cal	43%	70%
Arizona State	41%	59%
Oregon State	38%	55%

Oregon and Cal continue to have the biggest racial gaps in graduation rates for student-athletes.

Grad Rates for African American Athletes (All Sports): Selected Others
	African American	Caucasian
Michigan	54%	81%
Illinois	52%	76%
Iowa	50%	73%
Georgia Tech	46%	65%
Ohio State	46%	66%
Clemson	43%	65%
Nebraska	43%	62%
Kansas	41%	70%
Georgia	41%	65%
Tennessee	39%	63%
Colorado	29%	67%
Minnesota	27%	65%
Arkansas	26%	49%
Kentucky	24%	53%
BYU	22%	58%

Many schools continue to have large racial differences in graduation rates. In Division IA as a whole, the graduation rate for Caucasian athletes is 65% and the graduation rate for African American athletes is 49%.

Top 5 Grad Rates for All Athletes Major Conference Schools
Duke	90%
Stanford	87%
Northwestern	87%
Notre Dame	87%
Rice	82%
Virginia	82%

For the most part, the same schools keep showing up on the "Top 5" list every year. This year, Virginia makes its first appearance on the list.

Bottom 5 Grad Rates for All Athletes Major Conference Schools
UNLV	36%
UTEP	38%
Fresno State	42%
Oklahoma State	42%
Arkansas	44%
Houston	44%

All of these schools except UTEP showed up on the "Bottom 5" list last year as well.

Biggest Difference in Grad Rates Between All Athletes and All Students (Difference of 10% or more) Major Conference Schools
	All Athletes	All Students	Difference
UCLA	61%	83%	-22%
Cal	66%	84%	-18%
Florida	55%	73%	-18%
BYU	54%	72%	-18%
USC	62%	76%	-14%
Colorado	53%	66%	-13%
Texas	57%	70%	-13%
Texas A&M	60%	73%	-13%
Auburn	54%	67%	-13%
Oklahoma State	42%	54%	-12%
Clemson	59%	71%	-12%
Kentucky	46%	58%	-12%
North Carolina	68%	80%	-12%
Georgia	58%	69%	-11%
Wake Forest	76%	87%	-11%
Georgia Tech	58%	68%	-10%
Michigan	74%	84%	-10%
Virginia	82%	92%	-10%

Last year, BYU had the largest graduation rate gap for all athletes. This year, there's a new leader: UCLA. In fact, the University of California system now holds down the top two spots on this list, with Cal in a tie for second place. We wonder whether this is what the founders of the UC system had in mind.

Source: All figures are taken from the NCAA 2004 Graduation Rates Report. The report measures the percentage of scholarship athletes who graduated from each school within six years after enrolling as freshmen at that school. All figures are "four class" graduation rates, representing the combined graduation rate of the four most recent classes for which data are available.

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