It's been hard to swallow the unbridled optimism of many of the Cardinal
faithful this week, as they have looked down their collective nose at the 0-3
Washington Huskies. While it may be true that Stanford's rivals from the
Northwest have fallen on hard times, history is a harsh reminder of how lopsided
this matchup has been in recent years. Just two wins in the last 20 years
should be enough to soften the cries of those who say that it will not be
acceptable to just beat UW, but that Stanford must pound the Huskies in a
blowout.
Much of the optimism derives from rash of injuries Washington suffered last
week in their demoralizing 38-3 loss at Notre Dame. Starting fullback Zach Tuiasosopo and both starting wideouts, Charles Frederick and Corey Williams, are
all out. Given the big numbers that opposing offense have put up the last
two games against the Husky defense, Stanford fans have assumed they can run up
the score as well, without the threat of a Washington answer on offense.
But there are a few factors to keep in mind with the UW offense that give
pause:
- Quarterback - Gone is flailing junior Casey Paus, who was a woeful
combination of inaccuracy and poor decision making under center the first
three games. He was benched at halftime in South Bend to allow redshirt
freshman Carl Bonnell to take charge. Bonnell had seen only the most
token of action prior to the Notre Dame game, and he did not quite dazzle in
that half of opportunities. But the gurus of the Seattle scene have been
sky high on the 6'3" 200-pound athlete for quite some time. In fact,
when a local radio show hosted the three top media minds on Husky Football for
a preseason roundtable, Sports Washington's Chris Fetters, the
Seattle Times' Bob Condotta and the Seattle Post-Intelligencer's
Ted Miller unanimously forecast back in August that Bonnell would be the top
quarterback on the UW roster who would have the most snaps under center over
the course of the season. The redshirt freshman fizzled in preseason
camp and was third on the depth chart entering the season, but the Huskies are
looking for answers after their first 0-3 start since 1969, and Bonnell holds
the greatest promise at this time. It has become well known by now how
mobile he is, with gifted feet and 4.5 speed, but he also has a fantastic arm.
There is the potential for him to hurt Stanford by land or by air if he puts
it together in a "coming out" game. This guy is no scrub, and at 21
years old he is not quite wet behind the ears.
- The Option - Even if pocket passer Casey Paus is on the bench and the
Huskies' top two receivers are in street clothes, that hardly takes away from
the most potent threat through the years of Washington Football: the option.
Traditionally Stanford has lacked the team speed on defense to track and close
on the quarterback-driven form of running attack, and the Cardinal have
prepared nary a snap for the option prior to this week. There is the
thought that Stanford's 3-4 defense could be better predisposed to stopping
the option, given the speed and number of linebackers on the field.
Jared Newberry on one side and Jon Alston on the other, plus the
sideline-to-sideline mobility of former safety Kevin Schimmelmann. But
the option starts with punishing blocking up front, and UW has size and power
on their offensive line that will give Stanford trouble in their three-man
front. Preseason prognostications said this OL would be the weakness of
the Husky offense, but they have performed well to date and disproved the
doubters. Then you look at the talented runners Washington has in the
backfield, including sophomore Kenny James, who reminds some of Rashaan Shehee,
with the slashing capability to take a run up the middle or outside for chunks
of yardage. The weapons are healthy and in place to run wild against the
Cardinal, which has happened far too often in prior meetings.
- Tight Ends - The unsung strength for Washington on offense coming into
this game is their tight ends. Keith Gilbertson is not at all averse to
lining up his duo of 280-pound wrecking balls tight on either side of the line
to exert power. Joe Toledo is the more well-known of the two tight ends,
but he has been forgotten by many outsiders because of injury woes.
While that track record is long and undistinguished, few are commenting on the
back-to-back performances he had coming into today. He is built like an
offensive lineman but can catch the ball past the first down marker.
Stanford's smaller linebackers may have a tough time covering him when Toledo
is released from the line of scrimmage.
There is one more thing to say about the UW offense vs. Stanford defense
battle we should expect today. Don't get too caught up in the option hype,
despite what I wrote above. While it is a viable weapon that could be
unsheathed by Gilbertson today, there is a track record of the Husky head coach
that argues he won't go heavily down that path. Gilby is a man who carries
strong convictions in his offensive philosophy and believes you make your
personnel execute that plan, rather than retool your playbook helter skelter as
your depth chart changes. Though Bonnell has much greater mobility than
Paus, it would be an uncharacteristically radical move for the head Husky to run
option all game against the Card. I rather expect that the option will be
one arm of the machine put on the field, as part of a more varied attack scheme.
Moving to the other side of the ball, Stanford has high hopes to score and
move the ball against the Washington defense. After the Northwest nemesis
has been plowed for a very consistent 36 points per game (35 vs. Fresno State,
37 vs. UCLA and 38 vs Notre Dame), a surging Cardinal offense should have
similar success, right? Not so fast. One expectation by fans is that
Stanford will be able to have their strongest running game of the year, after
what they saw Maurice Drew do two weeks ago, but few college football observers
could confuse any of the Card's backs with that UCLA wunderkind.
Moreover, there is a school of thought that says Washington's big plays they
yielded to the Notre Dame passing game are not typical of their defensive
abilities. After getting ransacked by Drew and UCLA the previous week, and
positing that Irish tailback Darius Walker could present a very similar running
threat, some observers have hypothesized that the Washington defense was too
focused on stopping the run. Those big Notre Dame scores came primarily
from rollouts and play-action, as Husky defenders were caught peering too
closely over the line of scrimmage. The Washington secondary is in fact
supposed to be a strength of their defense, including senior cornerback Derrick Johnson, was was the masked man that picked off quarterback Trent Edwards late
in the fourth quarter in Seattle last year to close down the Cardinal comeback
The good news is that Stanford has a confident offensive package put in place
this week. In particular, Edwards told The Bootleg two encouraging
factoids. The first is that as he watched the tape of the UW-ND game, he
had a number of plays that he picked from Stanford's playbook that he felt could
have great success against the Husky defense. In a completely parallel
process, offensive coordinator Bill Cubit came up with several of the same plays
as he scouted the film. Both the coach and player shared a big smile when
they saw the overlap in their thought process, which at the very least suggests
a cohesive plan in place. The second note is that Edwards called this the
best game preparation he has experienced in his young college career, giving him
more confidence in his ability to execute this week's plan than he has had in
any prior game. After watching what Edwards did last week against the
vaunted USC defense in the first half, you can only wonder what he may have in
store this afternoon.
We expect that Washington will stack the line of scrimmage and put more
pressure on the young Stanford offensive line than we have seen them attempt in
their previous three contests this year. Until it is proven that the Card
can make a defensive coordinator pay for a compacted front, expect Washington to
bring heat. The Huskies do have a young defensive line, starting three
underclassmen, but senior Manase Hopoi is a beast at 6'4" and 290-pounds with a
burst, and freshman Jordan White-Frisbee is a freak at 6'6" and 330 pounds,
pushing from the outside and interior of the line, respectively. In the
linebacking corps, watch for weakside LB Joe Lobendahn, who has an energy and
sideline-to-sideline speed that reminds of Coy Wire. He has also been
Washington's most consistent linebacker to date, as well.
On special teams, we are uncertain of the potency of UW's return game.
Charles Frederick was a game-changing force in that arena, earning Pac-10
Special Teams Player of the Year honors in 2003, but he is replaced by Anthony Russo, who we have seen little from to date. Locals in Seattle call him a
breakout threat in waiting, but Stanford probably has the bigger axe to swing in
T.J. Rushing and David Marrero. The way the Card punting game has been
going of late, Stanford should gain advantages in field position, given the very
disappointing showing to date from Washington's Sean Douglas.
Are you fully subscribed to The
Bootleg? If not, then you are missing out on all
the top Cardinal coverage we provide daily on our website, as
well as our full-length feature articles in our glossy magazine.
Sign up today for the biggest and best in Stanford sports
coverage with TheBootleg.com
(sign-up)
and The Bootleg Magazine (sign-up)!