Stanford Offense vs. USC Defense
In a nutshell, the fundamental problem that the Cardinal offense faces in
this game is the strength of USC's front four. Last year they tore the
Stanford offensive line apart and provided unrelenting pressure on Stanford's
quarterbacks. Some observers believe the SC defensive line is not quite as
strong as the 2003 version, they are probably the best Stanford will face all
year. Unlike the San Jose State and BYU games, where the pressure on Trent Edwards came from numerical overloads, a simple four-man pass rush will provide
the threat most of this game. That ostensibly makes the schematics of
Stanford's blocking simpler, but it will not be easier. Here is the key to
USC's defensive lethality, though: a potent four-man rush allows to keep
your other seven defenders back to suffocate all receivers. Stanford broke
big plays against the pressures brought by the Spartans and Cougars because
there were holes in the defense when they took gambles, but the Trojans will
have seven bodies able to cover wideouts, tailbacks and Alex Smith.
For this reason, I think the most likely path to success for the Stanford
offense in this contest has to come from a strong ground game. If the Card
can move the ball with any consistency on the ground, with a target of 125 net
yards rushing, then that will force the USC back-end defenders to play closer to
the line of scrimmage. Then and likely only then will Trent Edwards get
opportunities to throw for big plays.
Unfortunately, the strength of Stanford's offense has not come in this young
2004 season from running the ball. The Card have averaged just 2.8 yards
per carry through two games, and neither of those defenses are as stifling as
USC's. Stanford is indeed throwing for more than three times the yards in
the air as they are netting on the ground. So if you put little faith in
the ability of Kenneth Tolon or J.R. Lemon to dissect the Trojan front seven,
then how to you go about loosening SC's defense with a passing attack?
It is a tall task, but the passing plan is predicated upon two assumptions.
The first is that Stanford has a fair amount of its offense that has not yet
been displayed after its first two romps. No matter the talent and ability
of a defense, their preparation is built upon a scouting report of tendencies.
When you recognize the likelihood of certain plays called out of formations or
personnel groups, you lessen the element of surprise and increase your chances
of stopping that play. Stanford believes they can run some offense this
game that may not be all trickery or radical playcalling, but can still keep SC
off guard with their scouting preparation.
The second tenet to which you must cling if you hope for Cardinal success
today is the ability of Trent Edwards to read the USC defense. With two
weeks to prepare, he has put in countless hours of watching SC film of their
defense to pick up on their keys.
"I'm as prepared as I've been for any game in my life," the redshirt
sophomore quarterback claims. "I've watched so much film that I feel as
confident as I possibly can be. Their defensive line is just so strong
that they don't have to send their linebackers. Their cover two shell lets
them stay in deep coverage; we have three or four guys out in routes against
their seven. But we have routes that can beat that coverage. My job
is to read the safeties and the 'backers - their depth and their alignment.
But right when you get to one thing, they move to another. Their defensive
coaches do a great job disguising their coverages. They might walk a
safety or 'backer up but blitz on the other side."
There are compelling matchups for Stanford's receivers, the strength of the
Cardinal offense, against USC's defensive backs. Who can cover Evan Moore,
for example? But the quiet key to watch is fifth-year senior tight end
Alex Smith. He leads all Stanford players with 10 receptions on the
season, and he will be going up against some of the best linebackers in college
football.
Stanford Defense vs. USC Offense
Surprisingly, the cadre of SC receivers looks relatively underwhelming thus
far this year. No Keary Colbert and no Mike Williams, and the replacements
have yet to step up to the level of their predecessors. It would be
unsurprising for this game to be a "coming out" party for Dwayne Jarrett or
Steve Smith, but based on what we have seen through three games, it looks like
the most dangerous receiving threat comes from the backfield. Fitting for
"Tailback U", the Trojans have used running back Reggie Bush as their best big
play threat in the air, accounting for 17.1 yards per reception and four
touchdowns already this year. Bush will occasionally be split out wide,
but more often you will see him in the backfield with another running back, plus
a tight end and two wideouts. Look for Bush to go in motion and give the
Trojans a three-wide set before the ball is snapped. When you put a
linebacker on Bush, or even a safety, you are asking to get hurt by his world
class track speed.
"He's the most versatile player in the country - best player in college
football for my money," says Stanford inside linebackers coach Tom Williams.
"He's an all-purpose back who an make you miss in the open field, but he can
also split out and can be an effective pass protector. You really get the
impression you're seeing two backs when he's in the backfield, but they're
really going three wide."
"If you can get a handle on what Norm [Chow] does with him in the passing
game," the coach continues. "That's half the battle. That's where
Norm gets him the big plays - really big."
Look for Stanford to employ nickel coverage in the secondary when Bush is on
the field with certain personnel groups, which would ostensibly put a Stanford
cornerback on him. The Card's trio of veteran corners are as strong a
group as we've seen on The Farm in a decade, but they will be put to the test in
limiting Bush. Oshiomogho Atogwe is also a key in the secondary to not
necessarily line up on Bush in coverage, but often to provide the help to make a
play on the ball.
Reggie Bush is a bigtime playmaker and concern. I don't think you can
overstate that case. But I have a sneaking suspicion that the Trojans
running game is the most dangerous threat. Just when you think you know
what Norm Chow will do with his personnel, he will mix things up and attack you
from another angle. We have perhaps forgotten about the severity of their
running attack because Hershel Dennis has been out of action with his
suspension. But the 200-pound junior, who was the leading weapon in SC's
National Champion backfield a year ago, whetted his beak with his first game
last week. None of us know what the Trojan offense will look like once
Dennis is fully integrated, and that might come today. We said months ago
when Stanford went to a 3-4 defense that they would be most tested by dominant
running games, and there is no bigger ground demon than the USC triumvirate.
Beware the ground game. And you will see shortly when the game kicks off
that Stanford's best run defender in the linebacking corps, fifth-year senior
David Bergeron is out of this game with a team suspension. When Chow and
the Trojans wake up to that fact in the first quarter, you can only expect them
to run right at Stanford's defense. The Cardinal linebackers in this game
have to close to the ball quickly and make a minimum of mistakes in pursuit.
The speed of USC's backs can turn an innocent run into a game-changing touchdown
in a heartbeat. Gap integrity is key from the 'backers, and the front
three have to clog up the running lanes.
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