Notre Dame is coming into Stanford Stadium this
Saturday. They opened the season with three straight
losses, but they've won 4 out of 6 games since then. They
still have a shot at a bowl game. They need to beat
Stanford this week and Purdue next week to become
bowl-eligible. They would love to redeem a disappointing
season by knocking off a ranked team. Make no
mistake: this will not be an easy game for Stanford.
Here's a breakdown of Notre Dame's statistics:
1. Notre Dame is a running team. The Irish run the
ball 71% of the time, and they gain over 62% of their yardage on
the ground. By comparison, the Pac 10 team with the highest
percentage of rushing yardage (Oregon) gains only 45% of its
yardage on the ground, and Stanford gains only 43% of its yards
with the running game (the third highest proportion in the Pac
10). Notre Dame has good rushing offense statistics, with 189
yards per game (31st in the nation). But that statistic is
due more to persistence than to excellence. Notre Dame just
keeps banging away on the ground, averaging 50 rushing attempts
per game, but gaining only 3.8 yards per carry, not an impressive
figure. Even though Notre Dame is a running team,
Stanford's rushing offense is significantly better:
Stanford gains 199 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry.
2. Notre Dame does not have a good passing
offense. They rank 114th out of 115 teams in passing
offense, with 113.6 yards per game (Stanford passes for 260 yards
per game). Notre Dame ranks 104th in passing
efficiency. Notre Dame's completion percentage is decent,
at 54.6%. But they gain only 5.6 yards per attempt and 10.2
yards per completion. (By comparison, Stanford averages 8.2
yards per attempt and 15.0 yards per completion.) The Irish
have thrown only 3 TD passes all year long, compared to 10
interceptions. Both of their quarterbacks have unimpressive
passing statistics, although Holiday is somewhat better than
LoVecchio. Notre Dame also allows one sack for every 7.3
pass attempts, which is not good at all. (Stanford allows 1
sack for every 16 attempts.) It's no wonder that the Irish
throw only 20 passes per game.
3. With a solid but unremarkable running game and a poor
passing game, Notre Dame's total offense figures are not very
good. They rank 107th in yards per game with 302, and 99th
in points per game with 19.7. They gain only 4.3 yards per
play (compared Stanford's 5.9). They are reasonably
successful at moving the chains, converting 40% of their third
downs (the same as Stanford), with most of their first downs
coming on the ground. But they don't have enough offensive
firepower to sustain drives on a consistent basis.
4. On the defensive side of the ball, Notre Dame's
statistics are much better. Notre Dame's defense allows
only 296 yards per game, which ranks 11th in the nation.
Notre Dame gives up only 20.0 points per game (23rd). However,
those statistics need to be put in context. Perhaps because
Notre Dame and its opponents have tended to be running teams,
Notre Dame's games move faster than Stanford's games. In
the typical Notre Dame game this year, there have been a total of
130 plays by both teams (70 by ND and 60 by its opponent).
By comparison, in the average Stanford game there have been 148
plays (78 by Stanford and 70 by its opponent). Notre Dame
has been able to "shorten" its games by reducing the
number of possessions and number of plays for each team.
This helps Notre Dame's defensive statistics somewhat. Still,
even adjusting for this factor, Notre Dame's defense is still
pretty good, holding opponents to 5.0 yards per play (Stanford
allows 5.7 yards per play). Notre Dame is allowing
opponents about 5% less yardage per play than they otherwise
gain, while Stanford is allowing opponents about 2% more yardage
per play than they otherwise gain. Notre Dame allows opponents to
convert 3rd downs at a 37% rate. Stanford is better in this
category, allowing a 31% conversion rate.
5. Notre Dame's best defensive statistics are in pass
defense. Notre Dame allows only 165 passing yards per game,
which ranks 7th nationally. On the face of it, Notre Dame's
pass defense looks much better than Stanford's, because Stanford
is giving up 298 passing yards per game (112th). The
figures, however, are deceiving. The main reason that Notre
Dame allows few passing yards is that its opponents don't pass
the ball very much. Notre Dame's opponents have averaged
only 22 pass attempts per game, while Stanford's opponents have
averaged over 41 pass attempts. Adjusting for this issue,
Stanford actually has a better pass defense than Notre Dame's in
some respects. Notre Dame is allowing opponents to complete
52.8%, while Stanford is allowing a 48.4% completion rate.
Notre Dame is allowing 7.4 yards per attempt; Stanford allows 7.2
yards per attempt. Notre Dame allows opposing teams a
passing efficiency rating of 125.2 (70th); Stanford is allowing
opponents a passing efficiency rating of 117.4 (51st).
Notre Dame's opponents typically exceed their season averages in
yards per attempt and passing TD percentage, while Stanford's
opponents typically fall short of their season averages in those
categories. Notre Dame does have a decent pass rush,
sacking opposing passers once every 12.4 attempts (compared to
Stanford's average of once every 23 attempts).
6. Notre Dame's rushing defense allows 131 yards per
game (39th). Stanford has better rushing defense stats,
allowing 104 yards per game (16th). However, in the reverse of
the situation discussed above with respect to the passing
defenses, Stanford's advantage in rushing defense is due largely
to the fact that Stanford's opponents don't run the ball as much
as Notre Dame's opponents. Notre Dame's opponents average
38 rushing attempts per game, while Stanford's opponents average
29 rushing attempts. On a "per play" basis, Notre
Dame's rushing defense has a slight edge, allowing 3.5 yards per
carry compared to Stanford's 3.6 yards per carry. Both
rushing defenses are significantly better than average, but
statistically, Notre Dame's rushing defense may be slightly
better than Stanford's.
7. Stanford has the edge in one other important
category: turnovers. Stanford is +6 for the year (27
takeaways and 21 turnovers), while Notre Dame is -2 (19 takeaways
and 21 turnovers)...