First, it was the Dutch tulip bulb frenzy. Then, it was
the South Sea Bubble. More recently, it was the
dot-coms. The lesson: don't believe the hype.
Wait until you can see something solid behind the hoopla before
you decide you've found The Next Great Thing.
I keep hearing that the Washington State Cougars are The Next
Great Thing. They keep getting mentioned as one of the top teams
in the conference. The various computer ratings have the
Cougars in the top 15 in the nation. What's the basis for the
rapid rise in the Cougars' reputation? Yes, they're 5-0 and
yes, they have one of the nation's leading offenses. But
how much does that really tell us? Are they for real, or
are they a college football equivalent of a dot-com, due to come
crashing down to earth any minute?
Here's a quick review of Washington State's season so far:
WSU 36, Idaho 7:Idaho is 0-5, ranked 124th by Sagarin. Idaho lost to
Washington by 50. They gave up 70 points to Middle Tennessee
State. Maybe the Vandals should go back to sacking Rome --
they're not having much luck sacking opposing quarterbacks.
WSU 41, Boise St. 20: Boise St. is 2-3, ranked 70th
by Sagarin. Boise State got blown out by Rice last weekend,
45-13. Boise St.'s wins came against UTEP (2-3, ranked
132nd) and Idaho.
WSU 51, Cal 20: Cal is 0-4, ranked 99th. Cal
may eventually turn out to be a decent team. But according to
comments by their own fans on Cyberbears, Cal's
players just gave up in the WSU game.
WSU 48, Arizona 21: Arizona is 3-2, ranked
74th. It's not clear how good Arizona is, in light of the
fact that Oregon rang up 63 points on them last week on their own
field. Arizona is the only WSU opponent with a winning
record, with wins against San Diego State (2-3, ranked 94th),
UNLV (1-4, ranked 87th), and Idaho.
WSU 34, Oregon St. 27: Oregon St. is 1-3, ranked
41st. Oregon State's win came against New Mexico State
(2-4, ranked 86th). The Beavers didn't help themselves
against WSU when they turned the ball over 6 times.
So, the Cougars have defeated five opponents who have a combined
record of 6-17. Excluding their losses to WSU, the Cougars'
opponents have a combined record of 6-12. I think it's fair
to say the Cougars have played a weak schedule. That's not
a criticism. It's just that a 5-0 record against that group
of opponents does not really tell us how strong the Cougars are.
There are a number of teams that would be expected to go 5-0 if
they played WSU's schedule. Probably any of the top 40
teams in the nation could do it.
What about the Cougars' glittering offensive statistics?
WSU is 5th nationally in total offense with 488 yards
per game, and 8th nationally in scoring with 42 points per
game. But it's important to consider the quality of the
defenses they've faced -- or more accurately, the lack of
quality. Idaho, for example, ranks dead last in the nation in
both total defense and scoring defense. Here are the
current defensive rankings of the Cougars' opponents (out of 115
Division 1A schools):
WSU
Opponent |
Total
Defense |
Scoring
Defense |
| Idaho |
115 |
115 |
| Boise St. |
96 |
88 |
| kal |
109 |
112 |
| Arizona |
87 |
104 |
| Oregon St. |
92 |
100 |
In other words, the Cougars have played against some bad
defenses. Any team with a decent offense would be expected
to put up good numbers against those teams. To quantify it,
the Cougars' five opponents have allowed a combined average of
36.5 points per game to their other opponents, while allowing
42.0 points per game to WSU. So WSU has scored a lot of
points against teams that allow a lot of points. You see the same
thing when you look at total offense numbers. WSU's
opponents are allowing an average of 445.1 yards per game in
their other games, while allowing 488.0 yards per game to
WSU. So, the Cougars have been exploiting some bad
defenses, and have done somewhat better than the rest of the
world has done against them.
Some of you will recognize that this comparative analysis is the
same thing Steve Durrett does with his Relative Performance Ratio
("RPR") analysis. To state these data in terms of
RPRs, WSU has a "scoring offense RPR" of 1.15; that is,
WSU's average of 42.0 points per game is 1.15 times as much as
the average of 36.5 points per game yielded by the Cougars'
opponents in their other games. WSU's scoring offense RPR
of 1.15 is 46th in the nation. Similarly, WSU has a "total
offense RPR" of 1.10; that is, WSU's offense has gained 1.10
times as many yards as the average allowed by its opponents in
other games. WSU's total offense RPR of 1.10 is 45th in the
nation. Thus, viewed on a comparative basis, WSU's offense
is somewhere in the middle of the pack nationally.
The point is this: WSU's offensive statistics look perhaps
a bit less impressive when you consider the defenses the Cougars
have faced.
The Cougars actually look stronger defensively than
offensively. WSU's opponents are scoring an average of 25.6
points per game in their other games, while WSU's defense has
held them 19.0 points per game. So WSU is holding its
opponents considerably below their average. The Cougars'
opponents are averaging total offense of 406.7 yards per game in
their other games, but WSU is holding them to 289.8 yards per
game. In RPR terms, WSU has a scoring defense RPR of .74
(having held opponents to 74% of their scoring average), which is
33rd in the nation. WSU has an outstanding total defense
RPR of .71, which is 9th in the nation.
For purposes of comparison, here are the comparable statistics
for Stanford: Stanford's opponents have a combined record of
8-6. Excluding their losses to Stanford, the Cardinal's
opponents have a record of 8-3. All of Stanford's opponents
are ranked in the top 40 by Sagarin -- Boston College is 34th,
Arizona State is 29th, USC is 37th.
Defensively, Stanford's opponents have allowed 15.5 points per
game in their other games, while allowing 36.7 points per game to
Stanford. Similarly, Stanford's opponents have allowed
total offense of 310.5 yards per game in their other games, while
allowing 445.6 yards per game to Stanford. Comparatively, then,
Stanford has done quite well against its opponents' defenses.
Putting this in terms of RPRs, Stanford has a "scoring
offense RPR" of 2.36; that is, Stanford's average of 36.7
points per game is 2.36 times as much as the average of 15.5
points per game given up by Stanford's opponents in their other
games. Stanford's scoring offense RPR of 2.36 is the best
in the nation by a considerable margin. Also, Stanford
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