Last week, there was some discussion on the BootBoard about
Stanford's home field advantage. Some people questioned
whether Stanford really has a home field advantage. It got
me curious, so I looked into it.
A comparison of Stanford's home and away records over the long
term shows that Stanford does considerably better at home than on
the road. Since 1963 (John Ralston's first season as
Stanford's coach), Stanford's winning percentage at home is .589
(126-87-5), while Stanford's winning percentage on the road is
.451 (84-103-6). Obviously, that's a significant
difference.
The same difference between home and away records shows up in the
more recent past. In fact, Stanford's home and away winning
percentages under Tyrone Willingham are uncannily similar to the
long term percentages noted above. Since Willingham took
over in 1995, Stanford's home winning percentage is .597
(21-14-1), while Stanford's road winning percentage is .452
(14-17).
Every one of Stanford's last nine coaches had a significantly
better record at home than on the road. Here are their
records (bowl games and neutral field games are excluded):
| |
|
Home |
Road |
| Willingham |
(1995-2001) |
21-14-1 (.597) |
14-17 (.452) |
| Walsh II |
(1992-1994) |
10-8 (.556) |
6-8-1 (.433) |
| Green |
(1989-1991) |
10-8 (.556) |
6-9 (.400) |
| Elway |
(1984-1988) |
14-13-1 (.518) |
10-15-1 (.404) |
| Wiggin |
(1980-1983) |
9-13 (.409) |
7-15 (.318) |
| Dowhower |
(1979) |
4-3 (.571) |
1-2-1 (.375) |
| Walsh I |
(1977-1978) |
9-2 (.818) |
6-5 (.545) |
| Christiansen |
(1972-1976) |
16-10-1 (.611) |
14-12-2 (.536) |
| Ralston |
(1963-1971) |
33-16-2 (.667) |
20-20-1 (.500) |
| Total |
|
126-87-5 (.589) |
84-103-6 (.451) |
Over the years, the difference between Stanford's home and away
records has been more significant in non-conference games than in
conference games. In conference games since 1963,
Stanford's winning percentage is .550 at home and .461 on the
road. In non-conference games over that period, Stanford's
winning percentage is .660 at home and .423 on the road.
That makes sense. The home field advantage would tend to be more
important in non-conference games, because the visiting team
often must travel through several time zones and often is
unfamiliar with the venue. In conference games, the home
field advantage is less significant because travel within the
conference is easier. Also, the visiting team in a
conference game often brings more fans because they live closer
to the game site, and the visiting coaches and players usually
are more familiar with the surroundings at a conference site.
Willingham's conference vs. non-conference breakdown shows the
same trend. In conference games, he has a home winning percentage
of .583 (14-10) and a road winning percentage of .500
(12-12). In non-conference games, Willingham has a home
winning percentage of .625 (7-4-1) and a road winning percentage
of .286 (2-5). The disparity is especially stark when
looking at games against non-conference opponents from east of
the Rockies. Against those teams, Willingham has a home
record of 5-0-1 and a road record of 0-5.
You might wonder whether the disparity between home and away
records can be explained by a difference in the quality of the
teams Stanford plays at home and on the road. In general,
Stanford plays home-and-home series with both conference
opponents and non-conference opponents, so Stanford faces largely
the same teams at home and on the road. Over the long run,
therefore, there should not be a significant difference in the
quality of home opponents and road opponents. The obvious
exception, of course, is San Jose State, which Stanford almost
always plays at home. Is Stanford's record against San Jose
State responsible for Stanford's high winning percentage at
home? No. Stanford's winning percentage at home against San
Jose State since 1963 is roughly similar to Stanford's
winning percentage at home against other non-conference
opponents. In recent years, Stanford actually has a better
winning percentage at home against other non-conference opponents
than against San Jose State. So the fact that San Jose
State usually plays at Stanford does not explain the disparity
between Stanford's home and away winning percentages.
It appears that Stanford does indeed have a home field
advantage. I suppose somebody might argue that when
Stanford plays at home, Stanford doesn't really have a home field
advantage so much as the absence of a road disadvantage.
I'm not sure that's a meaningful distinction. Whatever you
want to call it, there is a significant benefit to Stanford in
playing at home. Whether that benefit is as significant at
Stanford as at some other schools is a different question, which I
will leave for somebody who has a lot more time on his hands...